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2Q10 Turkey Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Turkey will have 69.1 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Avea Taking Market Share of 21.8%
IE Market Research Corp, May 2010, Pages: 118
Mobile Operator Forecast on Turkey provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Turkish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Turkey include: Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell), Vodafone Group Plc, and Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom)). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell)
Vodafone Group Plc
Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom))
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
* Available only for Turkcell
** Available only for Turkcell and Avea (Turk Telekom)
Negative subscriber growth in Turkey's wireless market continues
-5.3% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- The number of mobile subscribers in Turkey decreased by -5.3% (YoY) to reach 62.8 million in 4Q.2009. The wireless penetration rate in 4Q.2009 was 89.3%.
- Avea (Turk Telekom) saw its subscriber growth (YoY) decline sharply from 27.0% in 4Q.2008 to -7.1% in 4Q.2008.
- Subscriber growth at Turkcell and Vodafone also remained negative at -4.3% and -6.2% respectively in 4Q.2009.
Monthly ARPUs are increasing at Vodafone and Avea
+8.3% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- Vodafone's monthly ARPU increased by +24.1% (YoY) to reach TRY 14.40 in 4Q.2009.
- Avea (Turk Telekom) also saw its monthly ARPU increase to TRY 17.80 in 4Q.2009, up +21.9% YoY.
- Although Turkcell's monthly ARPU did not increase in the latest quarter, it remains the highesst among operators at TRY 18.60 in 4Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber keep increasing across operators in Turkey
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +50.4% in 4Q.2009
- The operator-wide average Minute of Use per Subscriber (MOU/Sub) reached 191 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +50.4% from 127 minutes in 4Q.2008.
- Avea’s MOU remains the highest among operators at 258 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +54.5% from 167 minutes in 4Q.2008.
Negative EBITDA growth at Turkcell and Avea in the latest quarter
-39.8% industry-average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) declined from -13.8% in 4Q.2008 to -39.8% in 4Q.2009.
- Turkcell's EBITDA growth rate (YoY) was -34.3% in 4Q.2009, down from -13.6% in 4Q.2008.
- Avea also saw a negative EBITDA growth rate (YoY) of -92.5% in 4Q.2009.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to increase to 69.1 million in 2014
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Turkey will increase from 62.8 million in 2009 to 69.1 million in 2014.
- Turkcell will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country with 37.2 million mobile subscribers in 2014.
- We also expect that Avea will have 15.0 million subscribers with growth rate of approximately 5% annually over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
Avea (Turk Telekom) will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
- Our model predicts that Avea's market share will increase from 18.8% in 2009 to 21.8% in 2014.
- We expect that the largest two mobile operators will see their subscriber market shares decline slightly over the next five years. We forecast that Turkcell will have 54% and Vodafone will have 24% of the market respectively in 2014.
ARPU levels in Turkey will keep rising steadily from 2010 to 2014
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will rise from TRY 16.94 in 2009 to about TRY 18.90 in 2014.
- At the operator level, we forecast that Vodafone will have the highest ARPU in the country at about TRY 21.00 per month in 2014.
- We expect that monthly ARPUs at Turkcell and Avea will be approximately TRY 18.42 and TRY 17.98 respectively in 2014.
Turkcell's EBITDA margins will be stable over the next several years
- We forecast that Turkcell's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain at approximately 35% from 2010 to 2014.
- Although Avea has had very low levels of EBITDA margins over the past several quarters (recording 0.9% in 4Q.2009), we expect significant improvements in their EBITDA margins over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
- Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell)
- Vodafone Group Plc
- Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom))