Construction Sector in Poland, H1 2010: Development Forecasts for 2010-2012

It is the 19th edition of the report comprising a sophisticated analysis of the construction industry in Poland, making it a useful guide in formulating strategic decisions and development plans for organisations active on the construction market. Additionally, it presents the newest findings of the cyclical sector climate survey conducted among the management of the largest construction companies in Poland.

The report Construction sector in Poland, H1 2010 also provides forecasts for 2010-2012, presented by the individual types of construction work for the whole construction output and for individual market segments, prepared using time series analysis augmented by macroeconomic projections, outcomes of the construction companies survey and knowledge of our experts.

For the purposes of this report, Poland’s largest construction companies were surveyed in March 2010. The survey was carried out using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) technique. We carried out a total of 111 in-depth interviews. It was the twelfth cyclical survey of the sector.

As earlier, the survey provided information on factors which affect whether positively or negatively the Polish construction sector, garnered views on the impact of Poland’s EU membership on the construction market, and defined factors material to success in the sector. Additionally, this edition of the survey focused on trends which can be noticed in the findings of previous editions of the survey, and thus it helps follow the changes that have taken place in the industry over the last six years.

Key Sections:

- Polish construction and assembly industry

- Results of survey conducted among Poland's largest construction companies

- Civil engineering construction

- Non-residential construction

- Residential construction

- Voivodeship profiles

- The largest construction companies' profiles SHOW LESS READ MORE >

I. Methodology

II. Executive summary

III. Current situation in the Polish construction market

- Construction market size
- Construction and assembly output
- Development forecast for construction and assembly output in 2010-2012
- Construction firms – number and type
- Employment and wages in construction companies
- Construction prices and the financial standing of construction companies
- Economic climate in the construction industry
- Legal changes relevant to the construction market
- Building permits – number of buildings

IV. Results of a survey of the 200 largest Polish construction firms

- Introduction
- Assessment of the Polish construction market situation
- Expectations of Polish companies regarding Euro 2012 related projects
- Overview and market standing of the largest Polish construction firms
- Current and planned foreign operations of Polish construction companies

V. Civil engineering construction

- Situation in the civil engineering construction market
- Environmental protection-related projects
- Road transport
- Railway transport
- Air transport
- Investments in heavy industry
- Power sector investments
- Refining and chemical sector
- PKN Orlen
- Grupa Lotos
- PGNiG
- Gaz-System
- Investments planned by coal mines
- Sports facilities
- Development forecast for civil engineering construction in 2010-2012

VI. Non-residential construction

- Situation in the non-residential construction market
- Industrial and warehouse construction
- Retail and service construction
- Office construction
- Hotel construction
- Educational and healthcare construction
- Development forecast for non-residential construction in 2010-2012

VII. Residential construction

- Housing stock
- Buildings and homes completed
- Individual investors
- Real estate developers
- Housing cooperatives
- Construction permits and housing starts
- Housing loans
- Housing prices
- Development forecast for residential construction in 2010-2012

VIII. Profiles of voivodship

IX. Profiles of the largest construction companies

- Polimex-Mostostal S.A.
- Skanska S.A.
- Budimex S.A.
- Strabag Sp. z o.o.
- Mostostal Warszawa S.A.
- Warbud S.A.
- PBG S.A.
- Hochtief Polska Sp. z o.o.
- P.R.I. Pol-Aqua S.A.
- Mostostal Zabrze-Holding S.A.
- Elektrobudowa S.A.
- Erbud S.A.
- Eiffage Budownictwo Mitex S.A.

X. List of graphs

XI. List of tables

XII. About PMR

XIII. Contact PMR

List of graphs:

1. Forecasts for growth in construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2009-2012
2. Size and y-o-y growth of the Polish construction market, 2000-2009
3. Nominal change in construction and assembly output (%, y-o-y), January 2008-February 2010
4. Annual nominal change in construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2000-2009
5. Change in construction and assembly output in Poland by type of construction work (%), 2001-2009
6. Breakdown of construction and assembly output in Poland by type of business activity, 2009
7. Construction and assembly output in Poland by type of building, 2009
8. Quarterly growth in GDP and gross value added in the construction industry in Poland (%, y-o-y), Q1 2007-Q4 2009
9. Real growth in GDP in Poland (%), 2002-2009
10. The value of foreign direct investments in Poland (€ bn), 2002-2010
11. Capital expenditure on buildings and structures by companies in Poland, 2000-2009
12. PMR Construction Climate Indicator, July 2004-March 2010
13. Cement production in Poland (m tonnes), 2000-2010
14. Total construction and assembly output in Poland, 2000-2012
15. Construction companies in Poland, by number of employees, as at the end of December 2009
16. The number of new construction companies with less than nine employees, 2004-2009
17. Growth in revenue and earnings of construction firms in Poland, 2002-2009
18. Employment in the construction sector in Poland (’000), 2000-2009
19. Average gross monthly wage in the construction industry in Poland (PLN) and its changes (%), 2001-2009
20. Inflation rate and prices in construction and industry in Poland (%, y-o-y change), January 2000-February 2010
21. Net sales margin in industry and construction in Poland (%), 2000-2009
22. Cost to revenue ratio in industry and construction in Poland (% of revenue), 2000-2009
23. Indicator of overall economic climate in the construction sector in Poland, January 2008-March 2010
24. Number of buildings for which building permits were issued in Poland (’000), 2000-2009
25. Assessment of the current situation in the Polish construction industry
26. Will the Polish construction market’s situation improve, get worse or remain unchanged in the next 12 months?
27. PMR Construction Climate Indicator, July 2004-March 2010
28. Which segments of the construction market will be the most attractive to Polish companies in the next two years?
29. Obstacles to doing business in the Polish construction market
30. What are the greatest barriers to doing business in the construction market?
31. What are the greatest facilitators to doing business in the construction market?
32. What are the key factors to market success in the Polish construction sector?
33. Which business area of your company suffered the most as a result of the construction crisis?
34. What measures are planned or have been implemented by your company in response to the crisis in the construction sector?
35. Is your company seeing any recovery in the construction industry?
36. What are the signs of recovery in the construction sector?
37. Why are there no signs of recovery in the construction industry?
38. How is your company going to benefit from the oncoming recovery?
39. Does your company participate in projects co-financed by the EU?
40. Percentage of companies participating in projects co-financed by the EU, July 2004-March 2010
41. Does your company expect to participate in Euro 2012-related projects?
42. What proportion of the adopted investment plan for Euro 2012 will be achieved?
43. Is your company concerned about competition from foreign construction companies which offer cheap labour and lower prices?
44. Competitors from which country do you worry about most?
45. Key construction segment for your company
46. Revenue of the surveyed companies in 2009
47. Does your company plan to increase or reduce its workforce in the next 12 months?
48. Does your company plan to expand its production capacities in the next 12 months otherwise than by increasing its workforce?
49. How is your company planning to expand its production capacities in the next 12 months (otherwise than by increasing its workforce)?
50. How do you evaluate your company’s present financial standing?
51. How do you evaluate your company’s financial standing this year relative to a year ago?
52. How do you expect your firm to stand financially at the end of 2010 relative to the end of 2009?
53. How do you evaluate the size of your firm’s portfolio of orders?
54. How has your company’s portfolio of orders changed in the past year?
55. Will the number of orders increase or decrease in the next 12 months (relative to the past 12 months)?
56. Does your company conduct projects or sell products or services abroad? (based on responses provided in 2004-2010)
57. Does your company plan to launch business activities outside of Poland?
58. Contribution of civil engineering projects to total construction and assembly output in Poland, 2003-2009
59. Construction and assembly output of civil engineering construction in Poland by type of building, 2009
60. Construction and assembly output comprising civil engineering works in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
61. Construction and assembly output comprising distribution pipelines and cables in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
62. Construction and assembly output comprising water treatment and sewage treatment plants in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
63. Construction and assembly output comprising roads and motorways in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
64. Construction and assembly output comprising bridges, viaducts, flyovers, tunnels, subways and pedestrian bridges in Poland (PLN m), 2000-2009
65. The length of motorways in Poland, eop (km), 2000-2011
66. Plan for the construction of motorways and express ways in the context of the Euro 2012
67. Construction and assembly output comprising railways in Poland (PLN m), 2000-2009
68. Modernisation of railway lines in Poland until 2012
69. Increase/decrease in generation capacity in Poland (MW), 2008-2030
70. Construction and assembly output comprising sports facilities in Poland (PLN m), 2000-2009
71. Construction and assembly output, civil engineering construction in Poland , 2000-2012
72. Construction and assembly output comprising non-residential construction in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
73. Contribution of non-residential projects to total construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2003-2009
74. Non-residential construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2009
75. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, the number of buildings, 2000-2009
76. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – non-residential construction, the floor area of buildings, 2004-2009
77. Construction and assembly output comprising industrial and warehouse buildings in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
78. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse construction, the number of buildings, 2000-2009
79. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – industrial and warehouse buildings, the floor area of buildings, 2004-2009
80. Warehouse space in Poland (‘000 m2), March 2010
81. Construction and assembly output comprising retail and service buildings in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
82. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service buildings, the number of buildings, 2000-2009
83. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – retail and service buildings, the floor area of buildings, 2005-2009
84. Supply of modern retail space in Poland (m2), 2005-2010
85. Change in the number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2001-2009
86. Market shares of building materials stores in Poland, Q1 2010
87. Construction and assembly output comprising office buildings in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
88. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office buildings, the number of buildings, 2000-2009
89. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – office buildings, the floor area of buildings, 2004-2009
90. The stock of office buildings and office building projects planned in regional cities in Poland (m2), March 2010
91. Annual supply of modern office space in the largest cities in Poland (‘000 m2), 2006-2010
92. Construction and assembly output comprising hotels and tourist accommodation establishments in Poland (PLN m), 2000-2009
93. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, the number of buildings, 2000-2009
94. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – hotels and tourist accommodation buildings, the floor area of buildings, 2004-2009
95. Construction and assembly output comprising cultural, educational, sports, healthcare buildings and hospitals in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
96. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – cultural, educational, sports, healthcare buildings and hospitals, the number of buildings, 2000-2009
97. Building permits and projects completed in Poland – cultural, educational, sports, healthcare buildings and hospitals, the floor area of buildings, 2004-2009
98. Construction and assembly output, non-residential construction in Poland, 2000-2012
99. Contribution of residential construction to total construction and assembly output in Poland (%), 2003-2009
100. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2009
101. Residential construction and assembly output in Poland by type of building, 2009
102. Housing starts and homes for which building permits were issued in Poland (’000), 2000-2009
103. The number and value of new mortgage loans in Poland, 2004-2010
104. Debt under housing loans in Poland (PLN bn), 2000-2014
105. Average price per square metre of dwelling sold in Poland (PLN ’000), Q1 2008 and Q1 2010
106. Construction and assembly output, residential construction in Poland, 2000-2012
107. Homes completed in Poland – number (‘000) and growth (%, y-o-y), 2006-2012

List of tables:

1. Construction and assembly output in Poland (PLN bn), 2008-2009
2. Main indicators illustrating the condition of the Polish construction industry, 2001-2009
3. Breakdown of construction and assembly output in Poland, by type of building, 2006-2009
4. Forecasts for the main economic indicators in Poland for 2010-2012
5. Anticipated result of the implementation of the Infrastructure and Environment Programme, 2007-2013
6. The number of construction firms in Poland, June 2002-December 2009
7. Financial results of the largest construction groups operating in Poland, 2008-2009
8. Financial results of construction companies operating in Poland (PLN m), 2001-2009
9. Major environmental protection projects in Poland (planned and underway), 2010-2015
10. Railway lines intended for improvement in Poland, 2010-2012
11. Extension of existing airports in Poland, 2010
12. Planned investments at new airports in Poland, 2010
13. Stadium construction projects in Poland (under construction and planned), 2010-2015
14. The number of hypermarkets in Poland, 2007-2009
15. The largest shopping centres planned and under construction in Poland, 2010-2013
16. Foreign supermarket chains in Poland, 2007-2009
17. Discount store chains in Poland, 2009
18. The market of office space in regional cities, 2008-2009
19. The largest hotel projects in Poland (planned and under construction), 2010-2014
20. Public buildings (planned and under construction) in Poland, 2010-2015 113-
21. Housing stock in Poland, as at the end 2009
22. The average floor area of homes completed in Poland (m2), 2000-2009
23. Housing completions in Poland by type, 1996-2009
24. Developer-built homes marketed, sold and offered in Poland, 2008-2009
25. Change in housing completions in Poland (%, y-o-y), 1998-2009
26. Homes for which building permits were issued in Poland, 2008-2009
27. Housing starts in Poland, 2008-2009
28. Population of Poland by voivodship, 2006-2009
29. Number of construction firms in Poland by voivodship, end 2009
30. Construction output in Poland by voivodship (PLN m and € m) 2006-2009
31. Construction and assembly output in Poland, by voivodship (PLN m and € m), 2006-2009
32. Construction and assembly output in Poland, capex projects, by voivodship, 2006-2008
33. Construction and assembly output in Poland, renovation work, by voivodship, 2006-2008
34. Number of residential buildings for which construction permits were issued in Poland, by voivodship, 2005-2009
35. Number of non-residential buildings for which construction permits were issued in Poland, by voivodship, 2005-2009
36. Characteristics of voivodships 139-
37. Key financial data of the Polimex-Mostostal Group, 2005-2009
38. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
39. Key financial data of the Skanska Group, 2005-2009
40. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
41. Key financial data of the Budimex Group, 2005-2009
42. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
43. Key financial data of Strabag, 2005-2009
44. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
45. Key financial data of the Mostostal Warszawa Group, 2005-2009
46. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
47. Key financial data of the Warbud Group, 2005-2009
48. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
49. Key financial data of the PBG Group, 2005-2009
50. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
51. Key financial data of the Hochtief Polska Group, 2005-2009
52. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
53. Key financial data of the P.R.I. Pol-Aqua Group, 2005-2009
54. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
55. Key financial data of the Mostostal Zabrze Group, 2005-2009
56. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
57. Key financial data of the Elektrobudowa Group, 2005-2009
58. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
59. Key financial data of the Erbud Group, 2005-2009
60. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010
61. Key financial data of Eiffage Budownictwo Mitex Group, 2005-2009
62. Contracts won in the period from October 2009 to March 2010

- Polimex-Mostostal S.A.
- Skanska S.A.
- Budimex S.A.
- Strabag Sp. z o.o.
- Mostostal Warszawa S.A.
- Warbud S.A.
- PBG S.A.
- Hochtief Polska Sp. z o.o.
- P.R.I. Pol-Aqua S.A.
- Mostostal Zabrze-Holding S.A.
- Elektrobudowa S.A.
- Erbud S.A.
- Eiffage Budownictwo Mitex S.A.