|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Poland Metals Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, April 2010, Pages: 57
Poland Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's metals industry.
The revival in the Polish steel industry appeared to lose steam in Q409, but BMI’s latest Poland Metals Report forecasts growth in 2010 that will gradually gather momentum as the economy returns to trend growth.
In 2009, crude steel output fell 25.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 7.21mn tonnes. While H209 witnessed a recovery in output from the collapse in the first half of the year, output was down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 1.98mn tonnes in Q409, although it was still up 25.3% y-o-y. This indicated that while inventories had been depleted by Q309, there was no return to trend growth.
The q-o-q decline in Q409 coincided with the conclusion of car scrappage incentives schemes across the EU, which had supported automotive sales in Q209 and Q309. The conclusion of these programmes removed a key driver of sales momentum. At the same time, the zloty appreciated in value against the euro, decreasing the competitiveness of Polish exports in the eurozone, particularly the export-driven car industry. Nevertheless, BMI is upbeat about the production outlook for passenger cars in Poland leading to strong local demand for flat metal products over the course of 2010. The ability of local industry to take advantage of this will be determined by the effect of the zloty’s medium-term value on competitiveness. BMI expects a bullish zloty over 2010 and into 2011 that could undermine growth in Polish flat steel and aluminium and the export-oriented industries they supply. Meanwhile, the market for construction steel has been supported by Poland’s preparations for the Euro 2012 football championships, although this is outweighed by the burst in the housing bubble, which had fuelled high growth levels in construction steel until the economic crisis. Nevertheless, the market is not expected to contract in 2010. BMI forecasts the finished steel market will grow 6.2% to 12.33mn tonnes, albeit from a low base. The market should be back on track in 2011 and by 2014 should have reached 17.1mn tonnes, an increase of 14.6% over 2008.
The expected lacklustre performance in key metals-consuming industries, coupled with capacity constraints and a poorer than expected Q409 have prompted us to revise down our metals output growth forecasts for 2010. Crude steel output growth has been reduced from 11.7% to 8.9%, with output at 7.85mn tonnes, down from the previously forecast 8.37mn tonnes. Correspondingly, HR output has been revised down from 13.7% to 8.6%, totalling 6.8mn tonnes. In the aluminium sector, despite the closure of domestic primary production, Polish aluminium net imports fell by around 30% to around 288,370 tonnes in 2009, on the back of a 38% fall in domestic consumption to just over 450,300 tonnes. Recycled aluminium fell by around 8.9% to just over 204,000 tonnes. The recovery will be brisk from 2010, when aluminium consumption will rise 18% largely as a result of restocking, but will still be lower than the level seen in 2006. By 2014, demand will total around 793,000 tonnes, up 8.3% over 2008 levels and representing a new high.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Poland Metals Report Q1 2011
Poland Metals Report Q4 2011
Poland Metals Report Q4 2010
Poland Metals Report Q2 2012
Poland Metals Report Q1 2012
Poland Metals Report Q1 2010
Poland Metals Report Q3 2009
Poland Metals Report Q4 2009
Netherlands Metals Report Q2 2012
Japan Metals Report Q1 2011
|
|
|
|
