New Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: A Market and Technology Forecast
CIR, May 2010
The idea that boards and chips (or even devices on chips) could be interconnected with optics has excited the imagination of engineers for well over a decade. Start-ups have appeared with optical interconnection as their main focus only to disappear from the scene a year or so later. Established transceiver and semiconductor firms have also tried their hands at optical interconnection, but have generally abandoned or downsized projects after a short space of time.
Until very recently, optical interconnection has not portrayed itself as a good business to be in. Something has changed in the last year or so, however, and that is the size of the addressable market. Optical interconnection projects of the past have looked for initial revenues from the limited opportunities in supercomputers or in very high-end telecom gear. But, as Moore's Law has pushed VLSI ever forward, the addressable market for optical interconnects has expanded from a few niches to the giant market represented by corporate servers and large routers.
Many believe that within a few years processor speeds will reach a point where optical interconnects will be required in most standard business computers. Meanwhile, the recent introduction by Intel of its LightPeak technology has propelled optical interconnection from something that is little more than a topic for technical conferences to a potential, near-term revenue generator.
These encouraging signs are countered by the quite daunting challenges facing optical interconnection; primarily, that is, providing cost-effective optical technology in markets that are used to paying only minimal amounts for metal connectivity. There is also the issue of matching optical interconnect technologies to the fairly different needs of the chip-to-chip, board-to-board and on-rack interconnection. CIR expects proprietary solutions to these problems to create sustainable market advantages for firms in the emerging optical interconnection space.
There are also significant new business opportunities emerging for suppliers of optical interconnect technology, including firms with roots in the diode laser, active optical cabling, transceiver, and semiconductor industry. We also think that optical interconnection will be a key enabling technology for computer and telecom/datacom equipment firms, which will increasingly find that the speed of internal interconnection is limiting their success in deploying the latest processors.
With all this in mind, CIR is publishing this new report, which identifies where the opportunities are to be found in optical interconnection and quantifies how much those opportunities will be worth. We believe it will be invaluable reading for all firms for which optical interconnection is key to their business strategies.
Executive Summary: Optical Interconnects
E.1 Summary of Current Market Drivers and Challenges for Optical Interconnection
E.2 Firms to Watch in this Space
E.2.1 Avago and MicroPOD
E.2.2 CyOptics and Terapics
E.2.3 Finisar, Laserwire and Optical Interconnection
E.2.4 Intel's Light Peak and Silicon Photonics
E.2.5 Luxtera and OptoPhy
E.2.6 Firms Offering Optical Engines and Optical Integration Solutions
E.2.7 Firms Offering Cable, Fiber and Connectors for Optical Interconnects
E.3 Summary of Key Opportunities as Perceived by Technology/Component Suppliers
E.3.1 Optical Engines and Embedded Optical Interconnects
E.3.2 Lasers
E.3.3 Connectors and Cables
E.4 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 Optical Interconnects Defined and Their Newfound Addressable Markets
1.1.2 Optical Integration for Optical Interconnection?
1.2 Objectives of this Report
1.3 Scope of this Report
1.4 Methodology and Information Sources for this Report
1.5 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Current and Future Markets for Optical Interconnects
2.1 Processor Speeds and the Need for Optical Interconnects
2.2 Optical Interconnects in Existing High-speed Very-Short-Reach Markets
2.2.1 VSR Telecom and Datacom
2.2.2 Rack-Based Cable Assemblies
2.2.3 Server Clusters
2.2.4 SANs
2.3 Board-level Opportunities for Optical Interconnects
2.3.1 On-board and Board-to-board Communications
2.3.2 Board-to-Board Cable Assemblies
2.3.3 Motherboards and Daughter Boards
2.3.4 Backplanes
2.4 Optical Interconnects in Chip-to-Chip Communications
2.4.1 Market Opportunities in Optical Interconnects in Chip-to-Chip Communications
2.4.2 Optical Interconnects and Multi-core Processors
2.4.3 Optical Interconnects in Transceivers
2.5 Longer-Term Opportunities for Optical Interconnects
2.5.1 On-Chip Optics
2.5.2 Fiber-at-the-Desk and Fiber-to-the-Desk
Chapter Three: Optical Interconnect Products, MSAs and Technologies
3.1 Products for Off-Chip Optical Interconnection
3.1.1 Pre-Terminated Optical Assemblies
3.1.2 Fiber-Optic Jumpers
3.1.3 MPO-based Parallel Optics
3.1.4 AOCs as Optical Interconnects
3.2 How MSAs and Standards are Shaping Optical Interconnection
3.2.1 The Dominant Datacom Standards Environment: Ethernet, Fibre Channel and InfiniBand Breeding New/Updated Transceiver MSAsSNAP12, QSFP, CXP
3.2.2 Optical Interconnection, 300-pin VSR, and OC-768
3.2.3 Optical Interconnection and PCI-Express
3.3 Proprietary Approaches to Optical Interconnection
3.3.1 Light Peak: Future Standard or MSA?
3.3.2 Other Proprietary Approaches
3.4 "Optical Engines" in Optical Interconnection: A New Product Direction?
3.4.1 The Role of Optical Integration in On-Chip and Chip-to-Chip Interconnection
3.4.2 Hybrid Integration Solutions
3.4.3 Future Monolithic Integration Solutions
3.4.4 Optical Interconnection and Novel Laser Types: Silicon and Quantum Dot
Chapter Four: Five-Year Forecasts of Optical Interconnection Markets
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.2 Alternative Scenarios
4.3 Forecast of Rack-based Optical Interconnection by Product Type 4.4 Forecast of Board-based Optical Interconnection by Product Type
4.5 Forecast of Chip-to-Chip Optical Interconnection by Product Type
4.6 Timetable and Qualitative Forecast of On-chip interconnection
4.7 Summary of Forecasts for Optical Interconnection
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Summary of Optical Interconnects Forecast ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Optical Interconnection Components
Exhibit 2-1: TIA-942 Basic Data Center Topology Defined
Exhibit 2-2: Fiber Channel over Ethernet Illustration
Exhibit 2-3: Avago's MicroPOD Module
Exhibit 3-1: 4-connector End-to-End Fibre Channel Connection
Exhibit 3-2: Harness Assemblies for a Brocade 48000 Switch in a Data Center
Exhibit 3-3: Fiber-Optic Trunk Cable with Pulling Eye
Exhibit 3-4: MPO Connector with Key Up
Exhibit 3-6: Side View Cut-away of Cassette MPO Connection
Exhibit 3-5: MPO Position 1 Designation
Exhibit 3-7: MPO Connector Endface Within Cassette
Exhibit 3-8: TIA-568C Method A Polarity
Exhibit 3-9: TIA-568C Method B Polarity
Exhibit 3-10: TIA-568C Method C Polarity
Exhibit 3-11: SNAP12 Module
Exhibit 3-13: CFP Module
Exhibit 3-12: QSFP Module
Exhibit 3-14: AOC with CXP ends
Exhibit 3-15: Illustration of CXP module and cable (Annex 6, InfiniBand Architecture Specification)
Exhibit 3-16: Today's Supercomputer
Exhibit 3-17: InfiniBand Formats and Data Rates
Exhibit 3-18: Cisco VSR Module with SNAP12 Devices
Exhibit 3-19: PCIe PCB with OE-FPGA from Xilinx/Reflex Phonetics
Exhibit 3-20: Intel Light Peak Technology
Exhibit 3-21: Light Peak Functional Diagram
Exhibit 3-22: MicroPOD Transmitter and Receiver Modules with 12-fiber Ribbon Cable
Exhibit 3-23: Luxtera's OptoPhy Transceiver
Exhibit 3-24: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
Exhibit 3-25: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
Exhibit 3-26: Light on Board Technology and LightABLE Sub-Assembly
Exhibit 3-27: CyOptics Terapics Project1 Tbps
Exhibit 3-28: Rendering of 3-D Optical Interconnect
Exhibit 3-29: 1310nm FP Quantum Dot Laser Structure
Exhibit 4-1: Data Center Active Optical Cables
Exhibit 4-2: Rack-based Optical Interconnects Forecast
Exhibit 4-3: MPO-to-LC breakout
Exhibit 4-4: LC-to-LC Jumpers
Exhibit 4-5: Total Revenue of Rack-based Optical Interconnects ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-6: Board-based Optical Interconnects Forecast
Exhibit 4-7: Chip-to-chip Optical Interconnects Forecast
Exhibit 4-8: Summary of Optical Interconnects Forecast ($ Millions)
New Report on Optical Interconnects Market, Sees $3.5 Billion Market Opportunity in 2015
Insights from the report:
While copper has had a stranglehold on both computing and networking equipment applications, moving forward, CIR believes that it will be unable to re-invent itself quickly enough to support all of the advances listed above. With each new generation of copper interconnects comes the need for more sophisticated digital signal processing, which becomes more costly in several ways dollars, power consumption and space. This is clearly not a direction in which either end users or OEMs want to move.
Optical integration is what CyOptics is doing in its Terapics project and Intel is trying with silicon photonics. However, optical integration still has a long way to go and there are many opportunities open with regard to chip design and materials used. CIR also sees considerable opportunity in the realm of quantum dot lasers. These are gradually becoming available and could enable chip-to-chip and on-chip optical interconnection. We could be on the cusp of transformation for board-to-board, chip-to-chip and on-chip with recent developments such as the Avago MicroPOD, Luxtera OptoPhy and Intel Light Peak as well as advances by QD Laser.
The volume opportunity for optical interconnects over the next five years will still be LC-to-LC jumpers in rack-based applications. There will also be healthy growth for MPO-to-LC and MPO-to-MPO assemblies.
About the Report:
This report is intended to provide in-depth analysis of optical interconnects markets and technologies. The specific purpose of this study focuses on likely new business opportunities for components including cable assemblies, chip-to-chip, on-board, cable and connectors and subsystems and modules firms utilizing or selling optical interconnects. In the report we discuss the markets for optical interconnects, which will include VSR telecom, servers and SANs (data centers) cabling, on-chip and chip-to-chip potential products. We also analyze how these developments in interconnection will impact the rest of the network. Also included is an analysis of the different types of possible new optical interconnect products like Light Peak from Intel and optical engines, that are now available from several suppliers, and how these products will affect the network. In addition, we cover optical integration and how its changing landscape will shape on-chip and chip-to-chip optical interconnects as well as novel laser types. Chapter Four includes forecasts for optical interconnect products by product type in volume and revenue terms.
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