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Zambia Mining Report Q2 2010

Business Monitor International, April 2010, Pages: 45


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The Zambia Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Zambia's mining industry.

IMF Urging Higher Mining Taxes
In March 2010, Reuters reported that the IMF is urging Zambia to increase mining taxes, to enable the country to fund infrastructure programmes. The head of the recent Fund mission to Zambia, George Tsibouris, was quoted by Reuters as saying that ‘enhanced tax collections, including from the mining sector, will be critical for providing space for increased capital and social spending’. However, for the moment, the government says it has no plans to reintroduce the 25% mining windfall tax which was levied from April 2008 to January 2009, when it was removed by the government in an effort to lend support to the sector, which was struggling from the impact of the global economic crisis at the time.

New Data
For 2010, BMI has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting. Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensure that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.

Country Overview
Zambia has a vast amount of metals, gemstones, industrial minerals and potential energy resources, including coal, hydrocarbons and uranium. For several years, Zambia’s economy has been based on mining, particularly copper, cobalt and zinc. Globally, the country is the seventh largest producer of copper and second largest of cobalt. Zambia is widely regarded as a low-risk investment destination and has attracted high levels of foreign investment in recent years. The government has concluded drafting a revised mineral empowerment policy that aims to stimulate greater participation of Zambian nationals in the country’s vast mining industry. The government also plans to develop large mining assets in all major provinces to create greater employment opportunities, which would address growing concerns about the uneven distribution of mining wealth.

Industry Forecast
Despite the difficulties facing the global mining industry, Zambian copper production was actually up by 31.25% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January-July 2009, reaching 442,322 tonnes. With cobalt production also set to receive a boost from the restarting of the Chambishi Metals smelter, this bodes well for the wider mining industry outlook in 2010. Zambia has long been considered a stable investment destination, with good mining sector regulations.
Our forecasts estimate an average annual growth rate of 3.6% for the Zambian mining sector over our forecast period to 2014 and believe copper and cobalt will remain key production sectors.


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