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Turkey Tourism Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, April 2010, Pages: 60
The Turkey Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Official data for Q409 show a relatively strong rise in foreign visitor arrivals, excluding Turkish citizens living outside Turkey, of 11% compared with the same quarter in 2008. This followed a modest rise in arrivals of 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q309, while in the previous quarter there was a slightly smaller increase of just over 2% y-o-y. Visitor arrivals declined by about 2% y-o-y in Q109. During January- December 2009, BMI estimates that the number of foreign arrivals increased by 3.7% y-o-y to just over 27mn. Istanbul, one of the European Capitals of Culture in 2010, recorded a favourable 6.5% y-o-y increase in tourist arrivals last year, with Germany, the UK, France, US, Italy and Russia as its top six source markets.
Hospitality
Hospitality sector data for Q409 show that the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights amounted to 91.8mn nights, an increase of 5.2% y-o-y. However, growth in Q409 was attributable to a robust increase (over 19% y-o-y) in domestic tourist room nights, to nearly 42mn nights. Growth in room nights attributed to foreign tourists, which started strongly earlier in 2009, showed a deteriorating trend during the course of the year. Foreign tourist room nights, about 55% of the total, declined by 4% y-o-y in Q409 to 50.3mn nights, following a 2.5% y-o-y increase in Q3. Foreign tourist room nights increased strongly in Q209 and Q109, up 9% and 10% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario
Although a sharp deterioration from the 12% growth in foreign visitor arrivals achieved during 2008, there was a relatively favourable outturn in the number of arrivals in 2009. As such, Turkey looks to have fared much better in 2009 than competitors such as Greece and Croatia. BMI has revised up its growth rate forecast for foreign arrivals to Turkey in 2010, with growth picking up more the following year. The background to these forecasts is economic recovery in Turkey’s major source markets, including the eurozone – especially Germany – Russia and the UK. The weakness of the Turkish lira against the euro in 2009, which assisted the competitiveness of Turkey’s tourism sector, is expected to be reversed from 2010 onwards. We have revised our exchange rate forecasts and now expect relatively sharp appreciation of the lira against the euro and US dollar by the end of 2011, constraining growth in foreign visitor arrivals.
Turkish Airlines
Despite a global economic downturn, data for 2009 show that the flag carrier Turkish Airlines (THY) increased its passenger numbers by 11% y-o-y, reaching just over 25mn travellers. The number of international business class passengers rose by 6.2% y-o-y, while transit passengers grew by 43% y-o-y. During January 2010, the airline maintained strong growth in passenger numbers. As part of an ambitious expansion programme, THY ordered 14 Airbus A321-200 and six Airbus A319-100 aircraft in January, to be delivered in 2011-2012. In February, it placed an order for 10 B737-800 and 10 B737-900ER aircraft from Boeing, to be delivered over 2011-2014.
Accommodation Developments
Rezidor Hotel Group is to open its third hotel in Istanbul in Q411. The 194-room Radisson Blu Hotel Istanbul will be Rezidor’s fifth Radisson Blu-branded property in Turkey. At the end of 2009, Ritz-Carlton announced that it will develop two new hotels in Turkey, one in Istanbul (its second property in the city) and one in the resort town of Bodrum, on the south west coast. These hotels will bring Ritz-Carlton’s portfolio in Turkey up to three establishments.
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