Vietnam Tourism Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, April 2010, Pages: 52
The Vietnam Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's tourism industry.
2009 Arrivals Slump By 10.9%
Figures released by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) in January 2010 show that tourist arrivals slumped sharply in 2009. Over the year, arrivals fell by 10.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), to total 3.67mn. This was expected, given the decline in the global tourism industry and the recession in the US, which is one of the main sources of visitors to Vietnam. In 2009, arrivals from a number of Vietnam’s key markets fell. Japanese arrivals fell by 135,000, while arrivals from Taiwan, Thailand and France also declined.
However, there were some encouraging indications. In November, arrivals increased by 38.6% y-o-y. This partly reflects a statistical rebound from November 2008, which was a particularly poor arrivals month as a result of visitor concern about travelling to Asia after the terrorist attacks in Mumbai and political unrest in Thailand. But the November 2009 result was not just a statistical rebound and growth continued in December, albeit at a more moderate 5.1%. We believe these figures are an encouraging sign that the tourism downturn has bottomed out and the industry is beginning to recover. We expect visitor numbers to continue improving, although 2010’s arrivals figures are forecast to remain muted as the global economy gradually returns to growth.
Hotel Sector Begins To Recover
Reports from the hospitality industry support suggestions that the tourist industry is beginning to rebound. During 2009 hotel room prices had fallen as a result of reduced demand for rooms. A report released by property services firm Savills Vietnam in early 2010 said that there was a recovery in prices in Q409. During the quarter, revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose by 28% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to US$57 per room. However, this improvement was more marked in lower range hotels, with RevPAR remaining unchanged for four and five-star hotels at about US$70 per room. This indicates that upmarket hotels were still regarded as overpriced, with mid- and lower range hotels more likely to benefit from the early stages of the tourism industry revival.
Vietnam Airlines Suffers Downturn In 2009
Reflecting the downturn in tourist arrivals in 2009, state-owned carrier Vietnam Airlines posted a sharp fall in profit for 2009. Total profit fell by 42% y-o-y to US$8.1mn, while revenues fell to US$1.3bn. However, given the downturn it is impressive that the airline managed to remain in profit when many other regional carriers posted losses. The company recorded that the number of passengers it carried actually increased in 2009, from 8.8mn in 2008 to 9.3mn last year. As such, the airline is targeting a strong return to growth in 2010, carrying 11mn passengers.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Tourism SWOT
Vietnam Political SWOT
Vietnam Economic SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2014 (‘000)
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2014
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourists Arrivals By Region, 2008-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2014 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data – Resident Departures By Destination Region, 2007-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Resident Departures By Country, 2007-2014 (‘000)
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
Regional Case Study: InterContinental Hotels Group (Asia Pacific)
Gaming
Infrastructure
Cruises
H1N1 And H5N1 Update
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Vietnam’s Security Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
South East Asia Security Overview
Currency Forecast And Monetary Policy
Currency Forecast
Table: Vietnam Currency Forecast
Table: Vietnam – Selected Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts, 2007-2011
Monetary Policy
Table: Vietnam – Monetary Policy, 2007-2014
Global Assumptions Q210
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2014
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2007-2012
Table: Emerging Markets Growth, 2007-2014 (%)
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
Vietnam Airlines
Huong Giang Tourist Company
Saigontourist
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Rating
Table: City Terrorism Risk Methodology
Sources
- Vietnam Airlines
- Huong Giang Tourist Company
- Saigontourist
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