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Electrification of Transportation: Impact on Petroleum Demand in the U.S.
Hart Energy Publishing, May 2010, Pages: 26
Transportation as we know it in a resource-constrained and carbon-sensitive world will permanently change vehicle technology over the next decade. For more than a century, oil and its by-products– gasoline and diesel – have fueled engines that allowed for unprecedented mobility and facilitated rapid economic growth in the world. Refined petroleum products helped make the world “smaller” and allowed globalization to be possible. Countries from Brazil, China, to India have prospered.
Higher rates of economic growth are shifting to emerging markets where rising middle-classes are demanding the same mobility experienced by the more advanced economies of North America and Europe. Motorization levels in Asia – particularly China – are rising; and gasoline and diesel demand have concomitantly risen as well.
Rising consumption of oil and refined petroleum products have increased competition for oil resources and contributed to a rise in green house gases. Competition for oil resources has engendered two responses: International Oil Companies (IOC) and National Oil Companies (NOC) are trying to lock up known sources of oil wherever possible; and countries are trying to reduce their dependence on energy resources outside their national boundaries.
The latter response has seen countries utilize local energy products – such as ethanol in Brazil and natural gas in Argentina – to fuel personal and commercial transportation. Other countries – such as the US – has passed legislation to force automotive companies to introduce engines that consume less fossil fuel (CAFÉ) or non-fossil fuel (Alternative Vehicle Technologies) – flex fuel vehicles (FFV), compressed natural gas vehicles (GNV), and partial of fully electric vehicles.
The link between rising oil consumption and green houses gases has engendered policies to reduce green house gas emissions from the use of energy resources. The European Union has instituted a carbon dioxide limit per kilometer travelled and California has passed policies involving low emission vehicles (LEV). While the Great Recession caused most countries to focus on their economies and push climate change protocols into the future, most policies makers admit that environmental concerns will be high on the agenda once economic stability has returned to the global economy.
Looking into the future, it is easy to see how the electrification of transportation has become the most viable option to deal with the aforementioned issues associated with rising oil consumption for most advanced economies as well as some emerging economies. Hybrids (HEV), Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV), and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) can utilize domestic energy resources that fuel the national grid to partly or fully power transportation into the future. Moreover, these vehicles will emit less green house gases and allow governments to better monitor and regulate greenhouse gas emissions in the future by focusing their attention on stationary source emitters.
While there are some skeptics concerning the electrification of transportation, the technology is not as new as cellulosic ethanol, for example. The automotive industry had already produced electrical vehicles in the 1990s to meet California’s stringent LEV requirements. “Who Killed the Electric Car?” was not a fictional movie; it was a documentary. While General Motors (GM) produced its version of the first electric vehicle (EV1) in 1996, cellulosic ethanol was only being produced in the laboratory.
More importantly, technological innovation in battery development outside the automotive industry has allowed the automakers to incorporate nearly a decade of development in a matter of years. Technological innovation in battery technology will allow a gradual and permanent transition to the use of electric power to fuel sustainable personal mobility. The transition to electrification of transportation will have a dramatic impact on oil and refined petroleum products.
In this report, we examine why Americans’ views on sustainable mobility are changing and how this will impact the vehicle architect in the United States. In the next chapter, we provide a primer on the electrification of transportation. There are several different hybrid architects that have different impacts on fuel economy and consumer demand that need to be fully understood prior to explaining consumer choice and automakers’ strategy, which will be discussed in chapter three. Chapter four attempts to pull together three scenarios for the roll out of electrification of transportation by examining different levels of federal and state incentives that will impact consumer choice and automakers productive capacity for HEV, PHEV, and BEV. The final chapter will examine the impact of oil and refined petroleum product demand given the three scenarios developed for the electrification of
transportation in North America.
Also available
Electrification of Transportation in the U.S. and its Impact on Utilities and Carbon - 2nd Edition
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