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Argentina Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2010, Pages: 89
Argentina Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In the new Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BER) for Q310, Argentina is ranked seventh in the Americas region, which has been expanded with the addition of countries such as Nicaragua and Honduras to cover 17 markets. Argentina’s scores on the ‘limits’ side is considerably stronger than those on the ‘risks’ side, which are hampered by its challenging intellectual property (IP) and pharmaceutical pricing and procurement environments. Indeed, on the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)’s Special 301 Submission for 2010, Argentina remains on the Priority Watch List. In addition to existing concerns over the lack of protection of undisclosed test data, patent backlog and the absence of a patent linkage system, the Association has also raised questions over the exclusion of patent rights from the amended version of the customs code regulating border measures for trademark and copyright enforcement.
In the meantime, the ‘drug mafia’ saga continues, with local press reporting that authorities are probing the spread of illegal trafficking of adulterated medicines and mismanagement of government tenders. Earlier in 2010, a former manager of the medicine regulatory body within the Ministry of Health and a number of other officials – including the owners of the drugstore chains BioDrugs SA and San Javier – were formally accused of illegal practices. These recent developments will do little to alleviate concerns over the operating environment for pharmaceutical companies operating in Argentina.
While Argentina’s economy returned to positive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the final three months of 2009, investment remained ropey and consumers continued to grapple with high inflation. Therefore, we remain sceptical as to the chances of a sharp snap-back in growth and thus maintain our comparatively modest 1.5% growth projection for the country in 2010, which will have a bearing on the availability of public finances for the comprehensive reimbursement programme run by the authorities. From the point of view of over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, real incomes are being fast eroded by rising inflation – which is expected to top 21% in 2010 – thus restricting the availability of funding for non-essentials, including vitamins. On the political front, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is battling with the opposition-controlled congress, which could throw some doubt over healthcare system policies in the run up to the 2011 presidential elections.
In the light of the above pressures, we expect the value of Argentina’s pharmaceutical market to reach ARS14.53bn (US$3.73bn) in 2010, up from the calculated ARS12.47bn (US$3.37bn) in 2009 (which underperformed, rising by less than 5% y-o-y). Through to 2014, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.63%, as measured in local currency terms (but lower in US dollars, as the peso weakens), which will continue in a similar double-digit vein over the subsequent five years. In 2019, the Argentina’s pharmaceutical market is expected to reach ARS43.53bn (US$9.46bn), or a considerable US$212.7 per capita (up from just US$91.6 in 2010).
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