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Australia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2010, Pages: 103
Australia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.22% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 6.72% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.84mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.39mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.59mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.47mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.85mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.37mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.74mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 477bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 648bcm is targeted for 2014. Asia Pacific gas production of an estimated 379bcm in 2009 should reach 531bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 98bcm to 117bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Australia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 4.93%, while its share of production is put at 11.88%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.68%, with the country accounting for 13.19% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just over US$83.50, WTI at almost US$87.00, Urals averaging just under US$83.00 and Dubai at US$83.67. As stated in our January 2010 quarterly report, the 2011 OPEC basket price assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond.
For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.00/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price is US$91.95/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$81.19 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, the authors are now forecasting an average US$96.00/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Australian real GDP is assumed to have risen by just 0.3% in 2009. We are now assuming annual GDP growth of 1.9% in 2010 and an average of 2.6% between 2010 and 2014. There is no state oil industry, but a group of domestic and leading international companies is investing heavily in gas production and exports to help slow the rate of decline in Australia’s oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 650,000b/d in 2012 then falling to 595,000b/d by 2014. Consumption is forecast to increase by less than 1.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 953,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 358,000b/d by 2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 34.17%, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 650,000b/d, before falling steadily to 395,000b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 5.63%, with growth slowing to an assumed 0.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 977,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 45bcm in 2009 to a possible 95bcm by 2019. With 10-year demand growth of 37.13%, this provides export potential rising from an estimated 21.5bcm to 59.9bcm, all in the form of LNG. Details of the long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2019.
Australia is at the head of the composite Business Environment (BE) league table, thanks to its leading position in the updated upstream BE rating that reflects its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world-class regulatory structure and solid risk environment. However, the 15-point upstream gap between it and second-placed Vietnam and India flatters Australia as it is due largely to the poorer country risk environment in the less developed Asian countries. Indeed, given the greater potential for more rapid growth in both Vietnam and India, the gap should narrow over the medium term, particularly as the country risk environments improve.
Australia is somewhat further down the league table in the downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It now holds fourth place out of the 15 states, sandwiched between Singapore and Japan, but could slip down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region.
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