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Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2010, Pages: 58
Egypt Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's petrochemicals industry.
With downstream industries skewed heavily towards fertiliser production, this latest Egypt Petrochemicals Report argues that the petrochemicals sector is better able to weather the economic downturn. In the fertiliser sector, the country had ammonia and urea capacities of 7.52mn tpa and 4.32mn tpa respectively in 2009. Agriculture has been among the least affected sectors in the global downturn. Egyptian fertiliser producers will look forward to growth in the months ahead, with domestic and foreign demand, notably from India, driving output. This is in contrast to the lacklustre performance of PE and PP, with prices on the Egyptian market failing to firm up in Q110. The slow performance of PP endproduct markets led to poor market activity over the course of the quarter, although converters started to receive better demand for their end-products in March 2010.
In the long term, the most dynamic downstream sectors will remain in plastics, an area that Egypt has only recently sought to expand in a meaningful way. Expansion in polymers capacities in 2010 should help ensure that Egyptian producers secure a share in that growth, although there are concerns about volatility in the short term.
In 2009, Egypt had ethylene capacity of 300,000tpa with PP and PE capacities at 200,000tpa and 225,000tpa respectively. Ethylene capacity is expected to reach 600,000tpa in 2010. PE capacity should rise from 225,000tpa in 2009 to 600,000tpa in 2010. However, the market situation will be precarious over the short term. Domestically, key petrochemical consuming industries have achieved strong growth in recent years due to growing investments from the Gulf and state-led economic reform programmes. There are signs that the construction industry is still managing to do better than expected and the need for residential construction remains high, providing a boost to the local market in construction-related polymers, particularly segments such as PVC that are highly exposed to the construction sector.
The authors expect PP capacity to rise to 600,000 by the end of the forecast period. We do not believe the Egypt Hydrocarbon Corporation (EHC)’s proposed complex near Suez will come online by 2013, even if it does manage to secure financing in 2010. Similarly, it is doubtful that the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones (GAFI)’s bid for foreign investment in a US$200mn PVC plant with a capacity of 120,000tpa and a US$150mn PS plant with a capacity of 200,000tpa will materialise in time for them to be onstream by the end of the forecast period.
The EMethanex joint venture (JV) may be onstream in 2010. The original cost of the facility, which will manufacture 1.3mn tpa of methanol, was estimated at US$620mn. This has already increased to US$950mn, the newspaper al-Ahram reported. Once operational, the methanol plant will turn Egypt into a net methanol exporter. Other projects include the Egyptian Propylene & Polypropylene Company (EPPC)’s new 350,000tpa PP facility in Port Said, which the authors believe will be fully functional in 2010. The nitrogen-based fertiliser sector is also expected to expand, with Egypt Basic Industries Corporation (EBIC) and Agrim adding about 2.2mn tpa of ammonia production capacity by 2010. A new VCM and PVC plant complex by TCI Sanmar originally due to start up in February 2010 was delayed, possibly to September/October 2010. The VCM plant will have a capacity of 400,000tpa and the PVC plant will have a capacity of 200,000tpa that is scheduled to double by 2012.
In the Middle Eastern Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings table, Egypt is eighth, with 49.7 points, 0.8 points more than in the previous quarter because of an improvement in the country’s long-term risk rating due to brighter overall prospects on external markets. The score has upside risks as a result of a more a positive outlook from 2010 and continuing, albeit stuttering, progress on expansion of petrochemicals capacity.
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