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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2010, Pages: 95
The Malaysia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.81% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 8.36% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.84mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.39mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.59mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.47mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.85mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 13.07mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.37mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.74mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 477bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 648bcm is targeted for 2014. Asia Pacific gas production of an estimated 379bcm in 2009 should reach 531bcm in 2014, and implies net imports rising from around 98bcm to 117bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Malaysia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 6.08%, while its share of production was 17.16%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 5.27%, with the country accounting for 16.96% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at US$85.11, WTI at US$88.22, Urals averaging US$83.62 and Dubai at US$83.14. As stated in our January 2010 quarterly report, the 2011 OPEC basket price assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond.
For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.00/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$91.95/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$81.19 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$96.00/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Malaysian real GDP fell by 1.7% in 2009, with growth of 4.1% forecast for 2010. We are assuming an average annual growth rate of 5.3% in 2010-2014. State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 740,000b/d by 2014. Consumption is forecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 536,000b/d. Malaysia’s gas exports are set to rise from an estimated 36bcm in 2009 to almost 56bcm in 2014, with production climbing from an estimated 65bcm to 90bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Malaysia oil production of 1.26%, with crude volumes peaking at 740,000b/d in 2014. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 19.62%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 580,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 65bcm in 2009 to a possible 110bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 28.14%, this provides an export capability reaching 71.6bcm in 2019, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections. Malaysia is ranked fifth behind
Vietnam in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. Its strong showing reflects the country’s fourth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, being offset by extensive state involvement. The country is just two points ahead of Papua New Guinea (PNG) and China and is in a relatively weak position to defend its position over the longer term. The country now ranks 13th behind Vietnam in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively high level of retail site intensity.
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