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Hard Copy
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Electronic (Excel)
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Enterprisewide
2Q10 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Algeria will have 40 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of Nedjma Increasing to 29.1%
IE Market Research Corp, May 2010, Pages: 118
Mobile Operator Forecast on Algeria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Algerian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Algeria include: Djezzy GSM, Mobilis, and Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Djezzy GSM
Mobilis
Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
* Available only for Djezzy GSM
** Available only for Djezzy GSM and Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom)
Subscriber growth in Algeria's wireless market increased significantly in the latest quarter
- +16.8% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) in Algeria's mobile phone market was 16.8% in 4Q.2009, up from -1.8% in 4Q.2008.
- Mobilis's subscriber growth (YoY) was 14.5% in 4Q.2009, significantly up from -18.5% in 4Q.2008.
- Subscriber growth (YoY) at Djezzy was 3.6% in 4Q.2009, down from 5.4% in 4Q.2008.
ARPUs have been declining at Djezzy and Nedjma for the last few years
- -18.2% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -18.2% to reach US$ 6.93 in 4Q.2009.
- While Mobilis's monthly ARPU has remained stable at approximately US $3 over the past four quarters, Djezzy's monthly ARPU declined by -16.1% (YoY) to reach US$ 9.90 in 4Q.2009.
- Nedjma's monthly ARPU also declined by -23.2% to reach US$ 5.94 in 4Q.2009.
Negative EBITDA growth continue at Djezzy in the latest quarter
- In the latest quarter, EBITDA growth (YoY) at Djezzy was -37.4% in 4Q.2009, significantly down from 19.3% in 4Q.2008. On the other hand, Nedjma's EBITDA growth (YoY) remained strong at 25.0% in 4Q.2009.
- However, Djezzy continues to enjoy EBITDA margins that are much higher than those of Nedjma. Djezzy's EBITDA margin (EBITDA / service revenue) in 4Q.2009 was 48.9% while Nedjma's EBITDA margin was 32.8%.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Algeria to reach 40.5 million in 2014
- Our forecasting model predicts that total wireless subscribers in Algeria will increase from 31.7 million in 2009 to 40.5 million in 2014.
- The largest wireless service provider in the country will continue to be Djezzy. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 14.6 million in 2009 to 16.9 million in 2014.
- We also expect that Mobilis will see its number of subscribers increase from 9 million in 2009 to approximately 11.8 million by the end of 2014.
Djezzy's subscriber market share will decline over the next 5 years
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Djezzy's subscriber market share will decrease from 46.1% in 2009 to about 42% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Nedjma's market share will be increasing over the next five years to reach 29.1% in 2014.
ARPU level will be stabilizing in Algeria's mobile operator space
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain in the range of US$ 7 - US$ 7.50 over the next five years.
- At the operator level, we forecast that monthly ARPUs at Djezzy, Mobilis and Nedjma will be approximately US$ 10.45, US$ 3, and US$ 6 respectively in 2014.
EBITDA margins at Djezzy will remain strong over the next five years
- Among the operators that we cover in Middle East and Africa, Djezzy continues to be one of the most profitable operators. We expect that Djezzy's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain at approximately 57% over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
- In comparison, we expect that Nedjma's EBITDA margin will remain at about 34% over the next five years.
- Djezzy GSM
- Mobilis
- Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom)
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