- Language: English
- 830 Pages
- Published: April 2012
- Region: Global
2Q10 Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Malaysia will have 42.5 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with DiGi Taking Market Share of 26.7%
- Published: May 2010
- Region: Malaysia
- 118 Pages
- IE Market Research Corp
Mobile Operator Forecast on Malaysia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Malaysian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Malaysia include: Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd., Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad, and DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd.
Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad
DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Not available for this country forecast
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Malaysia's mobile operator space
- +11.5% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- Subscriber growth in the Malaysian wireless market remains strong, but it is gradually slowing down. The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was 11.5%, down from 15.7% in 4Q.2008.
- At the operator level, Celcom enjoyed the fastest subscriber growth in the country in 4Q.2009. Celcom's subscriber growth (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was 15.8%, up from 21.6% in 4Q.2008.
- Subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Maxis and DiGi were 9.4% and 9.3% respectively in 4Q.2009.
ARPU levels continue to decline in Malaysia
- -6.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -6.0% (YoY) to reach MYR 54.56 in 4Q.2009.
- Monthly ARPU at Maxis was MYR 55 in 4Q.2009, down -6.8% from MYR 58 in 4Q.2008.
- ARPU growth rates (YoY) at Celcom and DiGi were also negative at -3.8% and -7.5% respectively in 4Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase at Maxis and DiGi
- +1.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry MOU/Sub was 203 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +1.5% from 200 minutes in 4Q.2008.
- DiGi leads Malaysia’s operators with its average MOU/Sub of 229 minutes per month, and MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of 4.1% in 4Q.2009. MOU/Sub at Maxis and Celcom were 181 and 209 minutes and per month respectively in 4Q.2009.
Positive EBITDA growth continued across operators in the latest quarter
- +3.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average EBITDA growth declined from 15.0% in 4Q.2008 to 3.6% in 4Q.2009.
- At the operator level, Celcom enjoyed the highest EBITDA growth at 14.3% in 4Q.2009, up from 8.9% in 4Q.2008.
- On the other hand, the EBITDA growth rate at Maxis decreased to -1.1% in 4Q.2009, down from 38.2% in 4Q.2008.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Malaysia to reach 42.5 million in 2014
- Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total subscribers in Malaysia will increase from 30.1 million in 2009 to 42.5 million in 2014.
- Our forecasting model predicts that the number of subscribers at Maxis, Celcom, and DiGi will reach approximately 16.4 million, 14.7 million and 11.3 million respectively by the end of 2014.
Maxis's market share will be declining over the next several years
- Our model forecasts that DiGi will see its market share increase from 25.6% in 2009 to 26.7% in 2014.
- On the other hand, Maxis will see its market share decline from 40.8% in 2009 to 38.7% in 2014.
Declining trend in ARPUs will continue over the next five years in Malaysia's mobile operator space
- Our model predicts that all operators will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years.
- We forecast that Celcom's monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 54.50 in 2009 to approximately MYR 49 in 2014.
- We expect that DiGi's monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 55 in 2009 to about MYR 50 in 2014.
Maxis will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Celcom and DiGi over the next five years
- We expect that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain in the range of 46% - 47% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.
- We think that Maxis will continue to have higher EBITDA margin than Celcom and DiGi over the next five years. According to our model, EBITDA margins at Maxis, Celcom and DiGi will be approximately 52%, 42%, and 44% respectively in 2014.
- Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd.
- Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad
- DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd.