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2Q10 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Pakistan will have 132 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of Ufone Declining to 17.8% Product Image

2Q10 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Pakistan will have 132 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of Ufone Declining to 17.8%

  • Published: May 2010
  • Region: Pakistan
  • 118 Pages
  • IE Market Research Corp

Mobile Operator Forecast on Pakistan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Pakistan’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Pakistan include: Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited), Ufone GSM, China Mobile Pakistan (ZONG), Telenor ASA, and Warid Telecom International. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited)
Ufone GSM
China Mobile Pakistan (ZONG)
Telenor ASA
Warid Telecom International

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR ****
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ****
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR ****
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR ****
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR ****
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR ****
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR ****
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ****
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR ****
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR ****
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ***
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ***
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ***
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR ****
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR ****
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *

* Not available for this country forecast
** Available only for Mobilink
*** Available only for Mobilink and Telenor
**** Available only for Mobilink, Ufone, and Warid

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Pakistan's wireless market
- +8.5% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009

- Industry average subscriber growth (YoY) in Pakistan was 8.5% in 4Q.2009, down from 16.9% in 4Q.2008.
- China Mobile Pakistan (ZONG)'s subscriber growth remains strong at 25.7% in 4Q.2009 (down from 177.8% in 4Q.2008).
- Mobilink, the largest mobile network operator in Pakistan, saw its subscriber growth rate (YoY) improve from -7.1% in 4Q.2008 to 8.1% in 4Q.2009.
- Subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Telenor and Warid were strong at 16.1% and 11.4% respectively in 4Q.2009 while Ufone's subscriber growth rate was -4.1%.

ARPUs continue to decrease in Pakistan's mobile operator space
- -7.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009

- The industry average ARPU growth was -7.0% in 4Q.2009, up from -21.5% in 4Q.2008.
- Mobilink's monthly ARPU remains the highest among operators at US$ 2.88 in 4Q.2009 (up +1.8% from US$ 2.83 in 4Q.2008).
- China Mobile Pakistan (ZONG) saw its monthly ARPU increase to approximately US$ 1.70 in 4Q.2009, up +8.1% YoY.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber continue rising at Mobilink and Telenor
- +9.4% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009

- The industry average Minutes of Use per Subscriber (MOU/Sub) reached 187 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +9.4% from 170 minutes in 4Q.2008.
- At Mobilink, MOU/Sub was 198 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +9.4% from 181 minutes in 4Q.2008.
- On the other hand, Telenor's MOU/Sub has been increasing for over the past four quarters. Its MOU/Sub was reached 173 minutes in 4Q.2009, up +11.6% YoY.

Strong EBITDA growth at Telenor in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth was +3.0% in 4Q.2009

- Telenor's EBITDA growth (YoY) rose to 36.5% in 4Q.2009, up from 14.0% in 4Q.2009.
- On the other hand, Mobilink's EBITDA growth was negative at -7.2% in 4Q.2009, up from -21.8% in 4Q.2008.

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Pakistan to reach 132 million in 2014

- The wireless penetration rate is still low in Pakistan at approximately 60% in 4Q.2009, and we expect that the country's wireless market will continue to show strong growth. Our model forecasts that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 97.5 million in 2009 to approximately 132 million in 2014.
- Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan’s mobile operator space over the next five years. We forecast that Mobilink will have approximately 43 million mobile subscribers in 2014.
- Also, our model predicts that Telenor will have 30.1 million, Ufone will have 23.6 million, and Warid will have 26.4 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014.

Mobilink's market share will be increasing slightly from 2010 to 2014

- In terms of shares of total subscribers, we expect that Mobilink will see its market share increase from 31.6% in 2009 to approximately 32.6% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we expect Ufone's market share to decline from 19.0% in 4Q.2009 to 17.8% in 4Q.2014.
- We also forecast that market shares at China Mobile (ZONG), Telenor, and Warid will be approximately 6.8%, 22.7% and 20.0% respectively by the end of 2014.

Monthly ARPUs will remain at US$2 - US$3 in Pakistan's wireless market over the next five years

- ARPU levels remain low in Pakistan's mobile operator space. We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU will continue to be at approximately US$ 2.40 over the next five years.
- Our model forecasts that, in 2014, Mobilink's monthly ARPU will be the highest among operators at US$ 2.80. We expect that monthly ARPUs at China Mobile (ZONG) and Warid will continue to be in the range of US$ 1.50 - US$ 2 over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.

Telenor's EBITDA margin in Pakistan will improve over the next several years

- We expect that Mobilink's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / service revenue) will remain at approximately 37% over the next five years.
- Norway's Telenor has been performing well in Pakistan's wireless market in the recent past, and our model forecasts that its EBITDA margin will be increasing from 24.4% in 2009 to about 26.7% in 2014.

- Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited)
- Ufone GSM
- China Mobile Pakistan (ZONG)
- Telenor ASA
- Warid Telecom International

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