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Hard Copy
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Electronic (Excel)
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Enterprisewide
2Q10 Brazil Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014
IE Market Research Corp, May 2010, Pages: 118
2Q10 Brazil Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: The Brazilian Wireless Market will have 258 Million Subscribers in 2014 with Claro Taking Market Share of 26.1%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Brazil provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Brazilian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Brazil include: Vivo Participacoes SA, TIM Participacoes SA, Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi), and NII Holdings, Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Vivo Participacoes SA
TIM Participacoes SA
Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi)
NII Holdings, Inc.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
* Available only for Vivo Participacoes SA, TIM Participacoes SA, and Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
** Available only for Vivo Participacoes SA, TIM Participacoes SA, and Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi)
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Brazil's mobile operator space
- +15.7% industry-average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average subscriber growth rate (YoY) remained strong at 15.7% in 4Q.2009, down from 24.7% in 4Q.2008.
- In terms of subscriber growth, Nextel (NII Holdings) is the leader in Brazil with a 37.0% rate (YoY) in 4Q.2009, down from 40.5% in 4Q.2008.
- The largest operator, Vivo, had a subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 15.1% in 4Q.2009, down from 20.2% in 4Q.2008.
- Claro had a subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 14.6% and TIM had a subscriber growth rate of 13.1% in 4Q.2009.
ARPU levels are decreasing in Brazil
- -9.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -9.1% (YoY) to reach BRL 25.98 in 4Q.2009.
- Major wireless carriers continue to see their ARPUs decline. Vivo’s ARPU growth (YoY) fell to -10.3% in 4Q.2009, down from -6.4% in 4Q.2008.
- ARPU growth (YoY) at Oi (Tele Norte Leste) was -10% in 4Q.2009, down from -0.8% in 4Q.2008.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increased at Vivo and TIM in the latest quarter
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +16.7% in 4Q.2009
- The industry MOU/Sub growth (YoY) was 16.7% in 4Q.2009, significantly up from 0% in 4Q.2008.
- The operator-wide average Minute of Use (MOU) per subscriber increased to 105 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.
- Vivo's MOU/Sub increased significantly to 119 minutes in 4Q.2009 (up +40% from 85 minutes in 4Q.2008)
- TIM also saw its MOU/Sub increase to 99 minutes, up +15.1% YoY.
Strong EBITDA growth at Claro in the latest quarter
The operator-wide average EBITDA growth was +6.9% in 4Q.2009
- The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 6.9% in 4Q.2009, down from 22.3% in 4Q.2008.
- EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Claro increased from -9.2% in 4Q.2008 to 27.4% in 4Q.2010.
- On the other hand, Vivo's EBITDA growth (YoY) declined significantly to 1.1% in 4Q.2009, down from 53.7% in 4Q.2008.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Brazil to reach 258 million in 2014
- Brazil has a large youth population, and its wireless market will definitely continue to grow over the next several years. With an increasing portion of subscribers using SIM cards, we forecast that the number of mobile subscriber accounts in Brazil will increase from 176 million in 2009 to 258 million in 2014.
- Vivo will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Brazil. We forecast that Vivo's subscriber base will increase from 51.7 million in 2009 to 72.5 million in 2014.
- Our model also predicts that TIM will have about 63.3 million subscribers and Claro will have about 67.5 million subscribers by the end of 2014.
Market shares of Vivo to decline slightly over the next five years
- We forecast that Vivo's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 29.3% in 2009 to 28.0% in 2014.
- The second largest operator in Brazil will be Claro with an expected subscriber market share of 26.1% in 2014.
- Our model predicts that market shares at TIM and Tele Norte Leste (Oi) will be about 24.5% and 18.8% respectively in 2014.
Monthly ARPUs in Brazil will remain stable from 2010 to 2014
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will stay in the range of BRL 25 - BRL 26 over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
- Nextel will continue to receive the highest level of ARPUs in the country. We expect that its monthly ARPU will be at approximately BRL 124 over the next five years.
- Our model predicts that monthly ARPUs at Vivo, TIM, and Claro will be about BRL 24, BRL 24, and BRL 22 in 2014.
EBITDA margins to improve slightly over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will rise from 28.1% in 2009 to 29.3% in 2014.
- Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at TIM and Tele Norte Leste (Oi) will be increasing over the next several years. We forecast that TIM's EBITDA margin will be 26.2% and Oi's EBITDA margin will be 28.4% in 2014.
- Vivo Participacoes SA
- TIM Participacoes SA
- Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
- Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi)
- NII Holdings, Inc.
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