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Canada Mining Report 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2010, Pages: 43
The Canada Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's mining industry.
2009 was a very difficult year for the Canadian mining industry. Falling minerals and metals prices and uncertainty over the economic outlook saw mines closed, production levels cut, projects deferred and exploration budgets reduced. According to figures from Natural Resources Canada, the total value of minerals produced in Canada fell by 31.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to CAD32.2bn. Metallic mineral production fell to CAD16.2bn (down 28.5%), non-metallic mineral production fell to CAD11.5bn (down 40.9%) and coal production fell to CAD4.5bn (down 8.9%).
However, with the worst of the global economic crisis now widely believed to be over, there are reasons for optimism in 2010 and beyond. There are a spate of new mine openings planned for the coming years, including Terrane Metals Mount Milligan copper and gold mine, Taseko Mines Prosperity copper and gold mine and Copper Mountain Mining’s copper and gold mine in British Columbia. Additionally, Cameco and Areva are both developing new uranium mines in Saskatchewan. All of which bodes well for the future development of the Canadian mining sector.
New Data
For 2010, BMI has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensure that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.
Country Overview
Canada is home to reserves of coal, copper, gold, iron ore, nickel, uranium and zinc, among other minerals. The country is now in second place in the world in terms of uranium production, having lost its number one slot to Kazakhstan during 2009.
Industry Forecast
After a difficult 2009, where we estimate that the total value of the Canadian mining industry shrank by some 10% y-o-y, we now believe that the scene is set for strong growth from the industry over our newlyextended forecast period to 2014.
With several important new mining projects set to commence production in the coming years, in the copper, gold and uranium sub-sectors, the sector as a whole should be able to post an annual average growth rate of some 7.4%.
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