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Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2010
Frost & Sullivan, May 2010, Pages: 52
The Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uzbekistan's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Uzbekistan’s pharmaceutical market barely registered the global economic crisis in 2008 and 2009, although the market’s growth rate has moderated and will continue to fall over the five and 10-year forecast periods. BMI expects the market to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.35% in US dollar terms between 2009 and 2014, reaching a value of US$519mn at the end of the forecast period, compared with US$317mn in 2009. State spending will continue to drive local output and consumption, although increased consumer demand and buying power will remain decisive factors in a consumer-driven marketplace.
The market remains one of the fastest growing among the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries covered by BMI. However, it should be growing more quickly – by over 20% in fact – given the population, pent-up demand and over 8% GDP growth rates observed in recent years. Instead, the market is slowing to single-digit US-dollar growth rates. The primary culprits remain macroeconomic and political factors. The economy has grown rapidly due to state spending and closely related increases in consumer spending. Healthcare spending is increasing, with around 3% of the 2010 budget earmarked for healthcare, a 30% increase year-on-year (y-o-y). Some of this has gone to new facilities, such as the widely publicised opening of maternal health screening centres in each of the country’s regions. However, BMI doubts that much of this spending will be used effectively or will result in accelerated growth in the overall pharmaceutical market.
Overall, Uzbekistan remains one of the worst places to do business in CEE, as evidenced by the country’s chronically poor showing in our Business Environment Ratings. The market utterly lacks transparency due to the dictatorial nature of the regime and alleged unreliability of at least some state statistics. On the pharmaceutical manufacturing side, the state-owned holding Uzpharmsanoat remains the dominant actor and driver of the country’s import substitution drive. It will continue to use joint-venture manufacturing projects to try and reverse the country’s overwhelming dependency on imported medicines. On the positive side, costs are lower than in neighbouring Kazakhstan, there is an existing research and development (R&D) infrastructure and pool of skilled labour and a potential niche for the development of plant-based medicines.
Notably, new regulations introduced in April 2010 limit the validity of pharmaceutical licences to five years. This should serve to push some small and inactive players from the marketplace. Meanwhile, projects in the pipeline include a US$10mn plant by Singapore-based Beacons and a joint-venture between Uzpharmsanoat and a Hungarian investor to build a vaccine plant. Privately-owned local player Jurabek Laboratories is building a new line for infusion solutions for both domestic sale and export with the aid of a US$5mn loan from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The local market retains huge potential as the most populous in Central Asia and virtually all therapeutic areas have great growth potential. However, the country’s very high levels of economic and political risk continue to undermine its growth potential for the foreseeable future.
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