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Pipeline Insight: Epilepsy - Past successes hard to emulate in highly genericized market
Datamonitor, May 2010, Pages: 166
Introduction
Sales of antiepileptic drugs totaled $3.5 billion in 2009 across the seven major markets (US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). Datamonitor anticipates the combination of continuing strong historical growth dynamics and the uptake of the late-stage pipeline drugs to result in the market value peaking at $5.1 billion in 2017, after which a new wave of patent expiries hits the US.
Scope
-Analysis of current epilepsy treatments, unmet market needs and the impact of generics.
-Review of the late-stage epilepsy pipeline, including analysis of key R&D company strategies.
-In depth analysis of historic (20052009) and future (20102019) seven major market sales value dynamics.
-Commercial and clinical assessment of key late-stage pipeline drugs, with key opinion leader comment and region-specific sales forecasts to 2019.
Highlights
With more convenient dosing and a purported improved safety profile over Trileptal and Tegretol, Stedesa (eslicarbazepine, Sepracor/Eisai) is forecast to become the best-selling pipeline antiepileptic drug. Factoring monotherapy approval and first-line use, epilepsy-specific sales are forecast to top $400m across the seven major markets by 2019.
Rikelta (brivaracetam, UCB) is forecast to generate almost $375m by 2019. With to UCB's already extensive epilepsy portfolio, Datamonitor expects careful positioning will negate significant sales cannibalization. Use will be chiefly among refractory patients with partial seizures, with monotherapy approval important to commercial success.
Three products are in late-stage development for the at-home management of acute seizures, a market dominated by Diastat (diazepam rectal gel, Valeant). With all seeking to provide an improved administration method, Ikano's intranasal midazolam (ITI-111) is set to become the new market leader with approximately $30m in sales by 2019.
Reasons to Purchase
-Analyze competitive environment at time of product launch.
-Validate internal forecasts and market potential for pipeline products.
-Identify licensing opportunities based on company portfolio and market needs.
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