Green Energy in Germany: Renewable Sources, Capacity Growth and Future Outlook

During 2004–08, Germany’s electricity generation increased at a low CAGR of 0.7% largely due to adoption of energy efficiency measures with the aim to reduce growth in demand. Germany’s energy policy is governed by the strategy to reduce dependence on imports of fossil fuels, while simultaneously switching to renewable and clean energy technologies. With the introduction of feed-in tariffs under the EEG in 2000, renewable energy technologies experienced strong growth. In order to meet the emission reduction target laid out in the EU directive, Germany adopted its own national climate action plan. At present, German government incentives and mandates are the main drivers of renewable energy in Germany.

This report documents the growth of the German renewable energy market, showing its current status and projecting where it is likely to grow to in the foreseeable future. This document gathers the statistical data on the different types of energy generation, combines and contrasts them against each other to show the clear leaders, drivers to change and future growth.

Key features of this report

- Overview of the German electricity market with focus on renewable energy. Analysis of energy type volumes, capacity installed, and generation output in Germany.

- Growth of renewables – installed capacity and generation, government mandates and incentives, and comparative economics.

- Information and analysis by renewable energy sector – wind, biomass, hydro, solar, geothermal, and biofuels.

- Installed capacity and generation, global comparison, key players, economics, drivers, resistors, and outlook for each renewable energy sector.

Scope of this report

- Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how German market trends and legislation are influencing the development of the renewable energy market.

- Assess the emerging trends in renewable energy technology – wind, biomass, hydropower, solar, geothermal, and biofuels - capacity and generation.

- Quantify value and volume growth potential in German electricity market and in energy generation technology type.

- Understand the major issues affecting the German electricity industry in general and renewable electricity in particular.

- Predict the key growth areas in the German renewable energy industry.

Key Market Issues

- EU Emission Reduction Targets: Historically, the EU’s emission reduction targets are the primary drivers for implementation of policies that encouraged usage of renewable energy in the EU member states. The EU’s directive on reducing GHG emissions through increased usage of renewable energy is expected to be met at individual country-level through their own policies.

- Renewable Energy Incentives and Mandates: In order to meet the emission reduction target laid out in the EU directive, Germany adopted its own national climate action plan. The EEG enacted in 2000 regularly monitors and adjusts the tariffs to suit market conditions and technological developments.

- Energy Security: Germany is increasingly substituting its fuel-based power generation with domestically-produced renewable energy, primarily to reduce its dependency on imports of fossil fuels from countries such as Russia.

Key findings from this report

- In 2008, Germany’s electricity generation totaled 612.8TWh, an increase of 0.3% over 2007. During 2004–08, Germany’s electricity generation increased at a low CAGR of 0.7% largely due to adoption of energy efficiency measures with the aim to reduce growth in demand.

- Contribution of fossil-fuel based generation to the total electricity generation in Germany reduced from 90.3% in 2004 to 84.9% in 2008, while share of renewables increased from 9.7% in 2004 to 15.1% in 2008. Germany’s increased preference for renewables is driven by the need to replace fossil fuels while countering climate change.

- Installed capacity for electricity generation from renewable sources increased from 4,651MW in 1990 to 37,406MW in 2008 largely led by phenomenal growth in wind energy capacity from 56MW in 1990 to 23,895MW in 2008.

Key questions answered

- What are the drivers shaping and influencing new capacity installed in the energy industry?

- How will renewable energy technologies capacity share perform to 2050? What are the opportunities?

- What are the forecast market growth rates 2008-2050?

- What is the policy framework governing the renewable energy market?

Green Energy in Germany
Executive summary
Market development
Wind power
Biomass
Hydropower
Solar power
Geothermal power
Biofuels

Chapter 1 Market development
Summary
Overview of Germany electricity market
Generation and installed capacity
Average retail electricity price
Overview of renewable energy in Germany
Background
Installed capacity and growth of renewables
Drivers of renewable energy
EU emission reduction targets
German government incentives and mandates
Technological developments leading to decrease in costs
Resistors of renewable energy
Uncertainty in government support
High cost of renewable energy technologies
Concerns over impact on environment and habitat
Comparative economics
Global comparison

Chapter 2 Wind power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of wind power
EU mandates and government incentives
Technological developments
Resistors of wind power
Uncertainty in government support and dampened private financing
High cost of grid connection
Wind power outlook

Chapter 3 Biomass
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of biomass
Government incentives
Increasing potential as a heating resource
Attractiveness of co-firing
Resistors of Biomass
Loss of biodiversity
Increasing raw material costs
Biomass outlook

Chapter 4 Hydropower
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of hydropower
Government incentives
Potential to develop small hydropower facilities
Resistors of hydropower
High environmental and social impact
EU’s Water Framework Directive
Hydropower outlook

Chapter 5 Solar power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of solar power
Matured and stable PV market
Resistors of solar power
Possible cut in feed-in tariff rates for solar power
Cost disadvantage of local module manufacturers over Chinese counterparts
Solar power outlook

Chapter 6 Geothermal power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Economics
Drivers of geothermal power
Government incentives
High capacity factor/base load potential
Resistors of geothermal power
Need for effective technology
Lack of early stage finance
Competition for drilling equipment from oil and gas industry
Geothermal power outlook

Chapter 7 Biofuels
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of biofuels
Government initiatives to foster growth
Second-generation biofuels to drive growth
Resistors of biofuels
Food versus fuel conflict
Increasing tax burden
Biofuels outlook

Chapter 8 Outlook
Outlook for the German electricity sector
Outlook for renewables
Appendix
Glossary
Index

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Gross electricity generation by source (TWh), 2004–08
Figure 1.2: Installed capacity by energy source (MW), 2008
Figure 1.3: Growth of electricity generation from renewables (TWh), 1990–08
Figure 1.4: Installed capacity of renewable energy (MW), 1990–08
Figure 1.5: Germany, structure of renewable energy generation market (%), 2008
Figure 1.6: Germany, structure of final energy supply from renewable energy sources (%), 200
Figure 1.7: Germany, structure of fuel supply from renewable energy sources (%), 2008
Figure 1.8: Instruments adopted by EU member states for the promotion of renewable energy
Figure 2.9: Germany, cumulative installed wind power capacity (MW), 2004–08
Figure 2.10: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed wind power capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 2.11: Germany, wind power key players (%), 2008
Figure 2.12: Germany, wind power generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Figure 3.13: Germany, cumulative installed biomass capacity (MW), 2004–08
Figure 3.14: Top 5 countries by biomass power generation (TWh), 2008
Figure 3.15: Germany, biomass power generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Figure 4.16: Germany, cumulative installed hydropower capacity (MW), 2004–08
Figure 4.17: Top 3 countries by cumulative installed small hydropower capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 4.18: Top 5 countries by hydropower consumption (TWh), 2008
Figure 4.19: Germany, hydropower generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Figure 5.20: Germany, cumulative installed solar PV capacity (MW), 2004–08
Figure 5.21: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed solar PV capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 5.22: Solar PV module price per peak kilowatt (€/kWp)
Figure 5.23: Germany, solar PV cumulative capacity projections (MW), 2009–13
Figure 5.24: Germany, solar PV generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Figure 6.25: Germany, cumulative installed geothermal capacity (MW), 2004–08
Figure 6.26: Top 5 countries by cumulative geothermal installed capacity (MW), 2005
Figure 6.27: Germany, geothermal power generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Figure 7.28: Germany, energy generated from biofuels (TWh), 2004–08
Figure 7.29: Top 5 countries by biofuels production (barrels per day), 2008
Figure 7.30: Germany, biofuels energy generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Figure 8.31: Primary energy forecasts (PJ/year), 2010–50

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Gross electricity generation by source (TWh), 2004–08
Table 1.2: Installed capacity by energy source (MW), 2008
Table 1.3: Growth of electricity generation from renewables (TWh), 1990–08
Table 1.4: Installed capacity of renewable energy (MW), 1990–08
Table 1.5: Germany, structure of renewable energy generation market (%), 2008
Table 1.6: Germany, structure of final energy supply from renewable energy sources (%), 200
Table 1.7: Germany, structure of fuel supply from renewable energy sources (%), 2008
Table 1.8: Cost of electricity generation by fuel type, 2008
Table 1.9: Global comparison of cumulative installed renewable energy capacity, 2008
Table 2.10: Germany, cumulative installed wind power capacity (MW), 2004–08
Table 2.11: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed wind power capacity (MW), 2008
Table 2.12: Germany, wind power key players (%), 2008
Table 2.13: Germany, wind power generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Table 3.14: Germany, cumulative installed biomass capacity (MW), 2004–08
Table 3.15: Top 5 countries by biomass power generation (TWh), 2008
Table 3.16: Germany, biomass power generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Table 4.17: Germany, cumulative installed hydropower capacity (MW), 2004–08
Table 4.18: Top 3 countries by cumulative installed small hydropower capacity (MW), 2008
Table 4.19: Top 5 countries by hydropower consumption (TWh), 2008
Table 4.20: Germany, hydropower generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Table 5.21: Germany, cumulative installed solar PV capacity (MW), 2004–08
Table 5.22: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed solar PV capacity (MW), 2008
Table 5.23: Solar PV module price per peak kilowatt (€/kWp)
Table 5.24: Germany, solar PV cumulative capacity projections (MW), 2009–13
Table 5.25: Germany, solar PV generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Table 6.26: Germany, cumulative installed geothermal capacity (MW), 2004–08
Table 6.27: Top 5 countries by cumulative geothermal installed capacity (MW), 2005
Table 6.28: Germany, geothermal power generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Table 7.29: Germany, energy generated from biofuels (TWh), 2004–08
Table 7.30: Top 5 countries by biofuels production (barrels per day), 2008
Table 7.31: Germany, biofuels energy generation projections (TWh), 2010–50
Table 8.32: Primary energy forecasts (PJ/year), 2010–50

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