Bulgaria and Europe amidst the Crisis: Macro Risks and Prospects for Major Industries in 2010-2011
Industry Watch Group LLC, June 2010, Pages: 25
Analysis of the impact of recent fiscal crisis in Europe on Bulgarian economy includes risks and opportunities for Bulgaria in 2010-2011 and industry forecasts.
Since our previous report in late-2009 governments in the developed world decided to continue the policy of fiscal expansion as a means to cover or disguise losses and problems in both banks and the real sector. In EU countries that lead to a massive growth of budget deficits. On one hand, such a Keynesian stimulus prevented natural deflationary tendencies which would have rebalanced the prices and restore competitiveness in the private sector. On the other hand, public debt reached levels that scared the markets (creditors) at last.
Introduction
Risks for Bulgaria: rapid deterioration of the fiscal position
Risks and opportunities: global market conditions and policies after the Greek crisis
Prospects before the main industries in Bulgaria
Sectors depending on the investment activity in Bulgaria
Sectors related to global investment demand or providing resources and materials for the industries
Industries heavily dependent on the business cycle
Business services
Industries least dependent on the business cycle
Indicators of economic recovery
Access to capital
Structural indicators
Access to financing on the global capital markets
External demand from main partners
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