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Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 73
This Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In the Q310 Business Environment Ratings (BER) table for the expanding Americas matrix, Colombia occupies sixth position (up from seventh previously). BMI calculates pharmaceutical sales in Colombia reached a value of COP4,819bn (US$2.24bn) in 2009, and we expect the market to post a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.91% in local currency terms through to 2014. Although its expanding population represents a major draw to foreign pharmaceutical players, the lack of patent linkage and a range of intellectual property (IP) and pricing and reimbursement deficiencies will continue to obstruct increasing levels of involvement. Additionally, per-capita spending is low, while state provision remains short of funding. In fact, the country’s healthcare system was recently declared on the brink of collapse, with the authorities aiming to rectify the problems through a basket of measures, some of which are proving deeply unpopular.
On the economic and political fronts, Colombia’s economic recovery remains fragile. Without easy access to credit for local consumers and businesses, we see little chance of this picture changing over the coming months, meaning Colombian policymakers are set to remain accommodative for much longer than many regional peers. The domestic inflationary outlook appears benign at present, with year-on-year (y-o-y) consumer price index (CPI) growth dropping to just 1.84% in March, from 2.10% at the start of the year. As month-on-month (m-o-m) inflation is likely to have already peaked this year, returning to a disinflationary trend from May onwards, CPI will have a smaller role in the development of the country’s pharmaceutical market.
There is now a very real chance that a centrist Partido Verde Colombiano candidate will become the next president of Colombia. We would then envisage a more cooperative approach to regional issues than has been demonstrated by President Álvaro Uribe's centre-right, conservative administration. However, given that we do not expect a significant shift away from Uribe's generally business-friendly reforms, and certainly do not anticipate a Chávez-style Bolivarian revolution, there is unlikely to be any long-term damage to Colombia's investment environment. On the contrary, closer regional cooperation could help the economy diversify away from its overdependence on exports to the US and Venezuela, a distinct positive for the economic outlook.
In fact, Panama and Colombia are in the midst of discussing the conditions of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which, if finalised, would have a positive effect on their pharmaceutical manufacturing outputs. With firms given an additional incentive to export regionally, economies of scale and lower prices could be a long-term outcome. Additionally, the move highlights Colombia's efforts to diversify its export destinations. However, Colombia’s FTA with the US, penned in 2006, remains low on the list of US administration’s priority for 2010.
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