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Croatia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 82
This Croatia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's telecommunications industry.
In this quarter’s Croatia Telecommunications Report, we have provided the latest Q110 figures for the mobile sector, leading to a revision in our forecasts, as well as the inclusion of mobile broadband subscriber figures in our broadband expectations. We have also taken into consideration the weak economic conditions that have led the government to place a 6% additional tax on mobile services, forming part of a higher taxation package designed to aid the budget.
T-Mobile, owned by Deutsche Telekom, is facing competition from Telekom Austria-owned Vipnet, which reported an increase in market share as of March 2010. Vipnet’s subscriber base rose by 5.2% y-oy to 2.634mn, accounting for a 43.5% share. As for T-Mobile, it had 2.798mn subscribers, but increased by just 0.6% in the same period, while third-ranked Tele2’s subscriber base fell by 18.4%, a result of its earlier change in inactive subscriber definition introduced in June 2009. By the end of Q110, there were a total of 6.056mn subscribers, which represented a small decline of 4,000 in the quarter.
Despite this, Croatia’s economy is expected to see a mild recovery in 2010. BMI’s Country Risk team predicts growth of 0.5% in the year, compared to the 5.7% decline experienced in 2009, which should boost the telecoms industry’s confidence. That said, the sector is also expected to undergo a further hurdle later in June 2010, when prepaid SIM registration is introduced. While this is expected to heavily impact operators given their dependence on the prepaid market, we suspect that much of the mobile sector is already occupied by multiple or inactive SIMs, and therefore registration would allow for a clearer understanding of the market.
We have for the first time included mobile broadband figures in our broadband forecast section, which has led to a revision upwards of our expectations. According to the telecoms regulatory body HAKOM, there were a total of 937,000 broadband subscribers as of YE09, of which mobile accounted for 27% of the total. Mobile broadband has become a driving force behind growth in the broadband sector and is overshadowing fixed broadband. We believe that this has to do with operators encouraging the adoption of non-voice services as they look to offset their heavy prepaid basis, which have lowered ARPU figures and dented profits. For the most part, operators have cut operating costs in order to counter additional expenses arriving from government taxation.
Meanwhile, the need by the government to raise funds for the budget may also be part of the reason why local reports state that it is looking to offload its 3.5% stake in T-HT. While it has not revealed how it would do this, the most likely option appears to be a sale on the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE).
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