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France Autos Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 57
This France Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's automotive industry.
Although the extension of the vehicle scrappage scheme until 2011 has ensured that domestic auto demand does not face a sharp plunge this year, BMI is cautious that the medium- to long-term impact of the scrappage scheme will make vehicle demand very stagnated. According to estimates from the Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Automobiles (ACEA), new car sales in France have responded positively to the government's new scrappage scheme for 2010, with sales increasing an impressive 17% y-o-y Q110, to 594,720 units.
Despite this, BMI believes that consumer interest in the scheme will start to wane from as early as H210, resulting in sales reaching only 2.87mn units, up nearly 7.5% y-o-y, by the end of this year. Thereafter, we are cautious to call 2011 a very strong year for French sales, given the fact the impact of scrappage schemes of 2009 and 2010 will have pre-empted much of the vehicle demand in the country, leaving room for a relatively small increase in sales. Nonetheless, sales should reach just over 3.08mn units by the end of 2014, significantly higher than the 2009 level of 2.67mn units.
Meanwhile, the French government’s efforts to control vehicle production shifting to eastern Europe may soon prove to be futile as both Renault and PSA Peugeot Citroën have indicated they plan to repay the government loan before the end of the stipulated five-year period. Should this happen, there is a risk that production in France will be unable to completely recover to pre-crisis levels and that growth will be sustained at only 1.82mn units by the end of 2014 – considerably lower than the 2.13mn units made in 2008.
Meanwhile, Renault has added Daimler as second partner to its alliance to help increase its capacity utilisation and share engine technology with the ultimate aim of economising on costs. Although Renault’s long term tie-up with Nissan Motor did not really necessitate a second partner, Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn estimates the partnership will help it reap EUR2bn in additional profits over the next five years. Renault has received more support to its vehicle electrification plan through a EUR100mn loan from the French government to help it upgrade two electric vehicle (EV) plants.
Such supportive government policies and the strength of its domestic market has helped France move up five places, to occupy a third position in BMI’s auto rankings for Europe this quarter. Its auto market is fairly well-developed and poses a tough challenge for new entrants, due largely to its reputation for fuelefficient technology.
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