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Greece Tourism Report Q3 2010

Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 62


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Business Monitor International's Greece Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's tourism industry.

Tourism Overview
The global economic downturn hit Greece’s tourism sector hard in 2009, with foreign tourist arrivals down an estimated 8% year-on-year (y-o-y). This followed a poor year in 2008 (arrivals down 2% y-o-y). According to official reports, tourist reservations in early 2010 were unfavourable from Greece’s two most important tourism markets, the UK and Germany. However, there was more positive news from markets such as France, Italy and Eastern Europe. In another blow to the sector, the volcanic ash cloud that has paralysed air traffic throughout Northern and North Western Europe has caused increased cancellations of hotel reservations recently.

Ongoing Strikes And Unrest
Since February 2010, Greece’s largest trade unions have organised general strikes to protest against the government’s austerity measures, often involving clashes with police in major cities. There has also been a spate of bomb attacks recently, targeting public buildings, banks and community groups, mainly in Athens but also in Thessaloniki. In some of the worst violence in recent years, three people were killed in a fire in central Athens in May after protesters threw petrol bombs into a local bank branch.

Forecast Scenario
We have revised down slightly our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 and now expect only a marginal increase (of less than 1% y-o-y). More favourable recovery in tourist arrivals, however, is expected from 2011. The outlook is partly based on our expectation of a generally weak European recovery. Our eurozone growth forecast is 0.9% for 2010 and 1.8% for 2011. As regards the UK – the key source market – our forecasts remain little changed, with economic growth of 1% and 3% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. A wave of social unrest over austerity measures designed to save the economy is also likely to undermine the tourism industry by damaging the image of Greece abroad. Moreover, with pension freezes and salary or bonus cuts likely to eat into household’s purchasing power, domestic tourism is expected to fall this year. Pressure on prices in the tourist industry will also be heightened, with companies facing stiff competition from cheaper destinations outside of the eurozone, such as Turkey and Croatia.

Athens International Airport
Latest figures for Q110 from Athens International Airport (AIA) show a rebound in passenger numbers, with traffic up more than 10% y-o-y to 3.17mn. These results placed the airport in second place among major European airports as regards passenger traffic (the European average was an increase of 3% y-o-y in the first quarter). Both international and domestic markets recorded strong growth, with passenger numbers up 9% and 13% y-o-y respectively. Middle East traffic achieved the strongest growth, up 19% yo- y, followed by Western Europe (+10.3% y-o-y), Eastern Europe (+9.6% y-o-y) and Asia (+6.5% y-o-y).

Olympic Air/Aegean Airlines
In February 2010 it was reported that Olympic Air and Aegean Airlines are to merge. The merged company will operate under the Olympic Air name, following a transition and adjustment period during which the Aegean name will be used as well. The merger deal remains to be approved by the European Competition Commission.

Aegean Airlines’ financial results for 2009 show revenue increased by 2% y-o-y, reaching about EUR623mn (US$872mn), despite adverse economic conditions. Operating expenses fell an annual 6% to EUR96mn (US$134mn), but net profit declined a marked 22% y-o-y to EUR23mn (US$32mn).


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