IPTV Global Forecast – 2010 to 2014 - Semiannual IPTV Global Forecast Report - Edition 1
Multimedia Research Group (MRG, Inc), June 2010, Pages: 116
This report updates the IPTV Global Forecast for Asia, Europe, North America, and the Rest of the World. It adds a forecast for System Integration and Professional Services to the other six segments normally included – Access Systems, Video Headends, Video-on-Demand Servers, Set-top Boxes, Middleware, along with Content Protection/Digital Rights Management.
The June 2010 IPTV Global Forecast – 2010 to 2014 is the latest revision of the earlier edition published by MRG, Inc. in November 2009. It incorporates the most recent information on current IPTV deployments around the world, as well a forecast for IPTV subscribers, service revenue, and system revenue from 2010 to 2014.
In total, this report breaks down the IPTV ecosystem into nine industry segments: DSL Subscribers, IPTV Subscribers, Access Systems, Video Headend Encoders, Video-on-Demand Server Software, Set-top Boxes, Middleware, Content Protection/Digital Rights Management (CP/DRM), and System Integration and Professional Services. In addition, this report splits the market into four regions around the world: Europe, Asia, North America and Rest of World, and also provides a global market summary. To do this, the report identifies over 800 Service Providers worldwide offering IPTV services. The number of companies has increased since the last report, since more Service Providers have launched services in the last 6 months or announced new trials.
This data is frequently refreshed to ensure that duplicates are removed and that the most up-to-date numbers are used.
The new forecast indicates that the number of global IPTV subscribers will grow from 41.2 million at the end of 2010 to 101.7 million in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 25.3%.
As for service revenue as shown in Figure 1-2, the global IPTV market is US$17.5 billion in 2010 and is forecasted to grow to US$46 billion in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 27%. By 2014, Europe and North America will generate a larger share of the global revenue, due to very low ARPUs in China and India, the fastest growing (and ultimately, the biggest markets) in Asia.
1 Executive Summary
2 Global Outlook for IPTV
2.1 Europe Leading the Way
2.1.1 Austria
2.1.2 Benelux Countries
2.1.3 France Continues to Leads the World
2.1.4 Germany
2.1.5 Greece
2.1.6 Ireland
2.1.7 Italian IPTV Market Moving Toward Regional Networks/OTT
2.1.8 Portugal
2.1.9 Spain
2.1.10 Sweden, Denmark, Norway
2.1.11 Switzerland
2.1.12 U.K. A Tough Market for IPTV
2.1.13 Other Western European Countries
2.2 IPTV Showing Early Growth in Eastern Europe
2.2.1 Armenia
2.2.2 Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.2.3 Bulgaria
2.2.4 Croatia
2.2.5 Czech Republic
2.2.6 Estonia
2.2.7 Hungary
2.2.8 Latvia
2.2.9 Lithuania
2.2.10 Moldova
2.2.11 Montenegro
2.2.12 Poland
2.2.13 Romania
2.2.14 Serbia
2.2.15 Slovak
2.2.16 Slovenia
2.3 Momentum in Asia Shifting to China
2.3.1 Australia
2.3.2 China: Growing Quickly in Some Regions
2.3.3 IPTV Continues to Thrive in Hong Kong
2.3.4 IPTV Still Nascent in India
2.3.5 Japan's Growth Slowing
2.3.6 Korea Moving to Full Broadcast IPTV
2.3.7 New Zealand
2.3.8 Taiwan Continues Gains
2.3.9 Activities in Other Asian Countries
2.4 Verizon and AT&T Driving North American IPTV
2.4.1 Canadian Telcos Adopting IPTV
2.4.2 Large U.S. Incumbents Leading the Way
2.5 IPTV Emerging in the Rest of the World (ROW)
2.5.1 Algeria
2.5.2 Brazil
2.5.3 Chile
2.5.4 Columbia
2.5.5 Guam
2.5.6 Qatar
2.5.7 Russian Federation
2.5.8 Turkey
2.5.9 United Arab Emirates
2.5.10 Venezuela
2.5.11 Other ROW Service Providers Preparing to Launch
3 Global IPTV Market Forecast
3.1 Methodology
3.1.1 DSL Forecast
3.1.2 IPTV Subscribers and Revenue
3.1.3 Access System Revenue
3.1.4 Video Headend System Revenue
3.1.5 Video-on-Demand Server Software Revenue
3.1.6 Set-top Box Revenue
3.1.7 Middleware Software Revenue
3.1.8 Content Protection/Digital Rights Management Software Revenue
3.1.9 System Integration and Professional Services Revenue
3.2 Global Forecast Still Shows Continued Growth
3.2.1 Global DSL Forecast Shows Continued Increase
3.2.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast Remains Firm
3.2.3 Global System Revenue Forecast
3.2.4 Global Access System Revenue Forecast
3.2.5 Global Set-top Box Revenue Forecast
3.2.6 Global IPTV Headend System Revenue Forecast
3.2.7 Global IP Video-on-Demand Revenue Forecast
3.2.8 Global IPTV Middleware Software Revenue Forecast
3.2.9 Global IPTV Content Protection/Digital Rights Management Software Revenue Forecast
3.2.10 Global IPTV System Integration and Professional Services Revenue Forecast
3.3 IPTV Market Forecast for Europe
3.3.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Europe
3.3.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
3.3.3 IPTV System Revenue for Europe
3.4 IPTV Market Forecast for Asia
3.4.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Asia
3.4.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Asia
3.4.3 IPTV System Revenue for Asia
3.5 IPTV Market Forecast for North America
3.5.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for North America
3.5.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for North America
3.5.3 IPTV System Revenue for North America
3.6 IPTV Market Forecast for the Rest of the World (ROW)
3.6.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.3 IPTV System Revenue for the Rest of the World
4 Opportunities, Risks and Recommendations
4.1 Opportunities
4.2 Risks
4.3 Recommendations
5 Index of Companies
Table of Figures
Figure 1-1: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 1-2: Global IPTV Service Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 1-3: Global IPTV System Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 3-1: Global DSL Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3-2: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3-3: Global IPTV Service Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 3-4: Global IPTV System Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 3-5: Global IPTV Access System Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 3-6: Global Forecast for IPTV Set-top Box Revenue (US$)
Figure 3-7: Global Forecast for IPTV Set-top Boxes by Technology (US$)
Figure 3-8: Global IPTV Video Headend System Revenue (US$)
Figure 3-9: Global IPTV Video-On-Demand Server Revenue (US$)
Figure 3-10: Global IPTV Middleware Software Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 3-11: Global IPTV Content Protection/Digital Rights Management Software Revenue Forecast (US$)
Figure 3-12: Global System Integration and Professional Services Revenue (US$)
Figure 3-13: DSL Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-14: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-15: IPTV Subscription Revenue Forecast for Europe (US$)
Figure 3-16: IPTV System Revenue Forecast for Europe (US$)
Figure 3-17: DSL Subscriber Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-18: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-19: IPTV Subscription Revenue for Asia (US$)
Figure 3-20: IPTV System Revenue for Asia (US$)
Figure 3-21: DSL Subscriber Forecast for North America
Figure 3-22: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for North America
Figure 3-23: IPTV Subscription Revenue Forecast for North America (US$)
Figure 3-24: IPTV System Revenue for North America (US$)
Figure 3-25: DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-26: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-27: IPTV System Revenue for the Rest of the World (US$)
Table of Tables
Table 2-1: Count of Service Providers Used for this Report
Table 2-2: Sample Quarterly Results: Global IPTV Operators
Table 3-1: IPTV Service Subscriber Monthly Pricing Assumptions (US$)
Table 3-2: IPTV Access System Per-Port Pricing Assumptions (US$)
Table 3-3: IPTV Video System Per Encoder Pricing Assumptions (US$)
Table 3-4: Video-on-Demand Per Stream Pricing Assumptions (US$)
Table 3-5: Set-top Box Pricing Assumptions (US$)
Table 3-6: Set-top Boxes Per Home
Table 3-7: Middleware Software Pricing Assumptions (US$)
Table 3-8: Content Protection/Digital Rights Management Annual Price Per Subscriber (US$)
Table 3-9: System Integration/Professional Services Rates
Table 3-10: Leading Service Providers Globally
Table 3-11: Global Service Provider IPTV System Spending: 2010-2014 (US$)
Table 3-12: Top 16 IPTV Service Providers in Europe — 2014
Table 3-13: Top 16 European Service Provider IPTV System Spending in Europe: 2010-2014 (US$)
Table 3-14: Top 14 IPTV Service Providers in Asia — 2014
Table 3-15: Top 16 Asian Service Provider IPTV System Spending: 2010-2014 (US$)
Table 3-16: Top 5 IPTV Service Providers in North America — 2014
Table 3-17: Top 5 North American Service Provider IPTV System Spending: 2010-2014 (US$)
MRG Reports Global IPTV Service Revenue Growing to US$46 Billion by 2014, with 23 IPTV Operators Having Over 1 Million Subscribers
The new report from MRG reveals global annual growth of IPTV subscribers of 25% CAGR in 2010-2014. Despite economic hardship in some countries, robust Broadband and IPTV investments drive growth as a means to meet and outperform Cable and Satellite competition. IPTV Operators are using Fiber in high-competition markets and advanced DSL such as channel bonding and VDSL2 in other (less competitive) markets. In this way, Telcos can discreetly improve their IPTV bandwidth capacity to sub-markets that need upgrades without overspending in markets that don’t require immediate upgrading.
The Eastern European IPTV market is moving quickly to early maturity, while ROW markets shows faster gains than other regions. “As late as 2007, Eastern Europe had only a few IPTV trials or startups. Now, there are 16 fully operating IPTV Operators and another 3-6 in trial,” says Jose Alvear, MRG Analyst. “These Operators continue to grow their service base, due mainly to the fact that they have much greater technical and creative control over their service than their Cable competition does.” Of the 102 million IPTV subscribers in 2014, Europe will maintain 45% of the global market, Asia 31%, North America 19% and ROW about 5%. IPTV Operators are using “discreet upgrades” to match and surpass Cable competition.
High ARPUs still favor Europe and U.S. IPTV markets, with largest service and systems revenues also coming from these regions. Of the specific CapEx items tracked by the report, expenditures will grow from US$3.1 billion in 2010 to US$5.1 billion in 2014, and Service revenue will grow from US$17.5 billion to US$46 billion. Over 50 companies are profiled from emerging markets. Despite the obstacles, by 2014, at least 23 SPs (mostly in China and Europe) will have exceeded the million-subscriber mark. Also, while STBs make up over 70% of the CapEx expenditures, expect integrated hybrid, IPTV, and OTT STBs (including connected TVs or “I-STBs” embedded in TV Sets) to account for increasing portions of that CapEx growth. An estimated 125% additional CapEx growth is related to backbone, NID/gateway and VOD Encoder sales not tracked in this report.
In the North American markets, all eyes have recently turned to Verizon and AT&T, each adding about 1 million subscribers in 2009. Since Verizon stopped signing new franchise agreements outside its existing footprint, speculation is growing that Verizon will switch from its QAM/IPTV architecture to an all IPTV (Fiber-based) architecture for future franchises in 2011. Meantime AT&T, with no such technical constraints, is free to use a “discreet upgrade” approach to growing bandwidth using a mix of advanced DSL or FTTX as needed. Furthermore, its continued success with new Apple products—despite network slowdowns—continues to drive new revenues its way.
- 3PLayPlus
- Accedo Broadband
- ACT Television
- Adobe
- Aksh Optifibre
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Algeria Telecom
- Alice
- Altibox
- Amino
- Amis Telekom
- Apple
- (Apple TV, iPhone, iPhone App Store, iTunes)
- Arcor
- ARRIS
- Associazione Italiana degli operatori IPTV
- AT&T
- Avail Media
- Avail-TVN
- BBC
- BeeSmart (Smart Com)
- Belgacom
- Bell Aliant
- Bell Canada
- BH Telecom
- Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd. (BSNL)
- Bharti Airtel
- BigBand Networks
- Bouygues Telecom
- Brasil Telecom
- BT
- Cablevision
- CANTV
- Carphone Warehouse
- CCTV
- CenturyLink
- CenturyTel (EMBARQ)
- Channel 4
- Channel Five
- China Mobile
- China Netcom
- China Telecom
- China Unicom
- Chunghwa Telecom
- Cisco Systems
- City Telecom
- Comcast
- Completel-Darty
- Comstar-UTS
- Consolidated Communications
- Copaco
- Corporación Nacional de Telecomunicaciones (CNT)
- Crnogorski Telekom
- Deutsche Telekom (DT)
- Dialog Telecom
- DIRECTV
- DISH Network
- Dreampark
- du
- Elion
- energie wasser luzern
- EnterNet
- Envivio
- Ericsson
- Espial
- ESPN
- ETB
- Etisalat
- Facebook
- FASTWEB
- Firecomms
- Free
- Freesat
- Freeview
- FTTH Council
- GoBackTV
- Goldstone Technologies
- Google (Google TV)
- GTA TeleGuam
- Guangxi Telecom
- Guangzhou Digital Media Group
- GVT
- HanseNet
- HBO
- Hellas Online
- HomePlug Association
- Hong Kong Broadband
- Huawei
- IEEE
- iiNet
- Iliad
- Inspira Hotels
- Instituto Costarricensede Electricidad (ICE)
- Internode
- Intracom
- Inuk Networks
- Iskon
- ITU
- ITV
- J.D. Power and Associates
- Jazztel
- KODIMA
- KPN
- KT
- Latens
- Lattelecom
- LG Dacom
- Logosoft
- Lyse Energi
- M:tel
- Magnet Networks
- Magyar Telekom
- Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. (MTNL)
- Megalan Network
- Microsoft (Xbox 360)
- Minerva
- Mobixell Networks
- Moldtelecom
- Motorola (BitBand, SecureMedia)
- Move Networks
- MTS Allstream
- Multimedia Polska
- myKP
- n
- Netgem
- Netia
- Neuf Cegetel
- NextGenTel
- Nokia Siemens Networks
- Northpower
- North-West Telecom
- NTT (NTT Plala)
- On Telecoms
- Open IPTV Forum
- Optima Telekom
- Orange France Telecom
- Orca Interactive
- OTE
- P&T Luxembourg
- Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL)
- PCCW
- Philippine Long Distance Telephone (PLDT)
- Pioneer
- Portugal Telecom
- Prisa
- Project Canvas
- PT Telkom
- QTel
- Qwest
- Reggefiber
- Reliance Communications
- Romtelecom
- Ruckus Wireless
- Sagem
- SARFT
- SaskTel
- Saudi Telecom
- SeaChange
- SFR
- Shanghai Media Group
- Shanghai Telecom
- Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel)
- SK Broadband
- Sky
- Smart Digivision
- Smart Telecom
- SoftAtHome
- Softbank Yahoo
- Sonaecom
- Sonera
- Sri Lanka Telecom
- Stofa
- SureWest
- Swisscom
- T2
- TalkTalk
- Tata
- T-Com Slovakia
- Technicolor (Thomson)
- Tele2/Versatel
- Telecom Italia
- Telecom Liechtenstein
- Telecom Malaysia (TM)
- Telefónica
- Telefónica Brasil
- Telefónica del Sur (Telsur)
- Telefónica O2
- Telekom Austria
- Telekom Malaysia
- Telekom Slovenije
- Telekom Srbija
- Telenor
- TeliaSonera
- Telstra
- TelstraClear
- TELUS
- TEO LT
- Teracom
- T-Hrvatski Telekom
- Tilgin
- TIME dotCom
- Time Warner Cable
- Tiscali
- Tiscali UK
- T-Mobile Croatia
- TPSA
- TransACT
- TRE-FOR Bredbånd
- True
- Türk Telecom
- Tusmobile
- TVN
- Twitter
- UNE-EPM Telecommunicaciones
- United Communications (Ucom)
- United Telecoms Limited
- UTStarcom
- Velton Telecom
- Verimatrix
- Verizon
- Vietnam Post and Telecommunications Group (VNPT)
- VimpelCom
- Virgin
- Virgin Media
- Vivendi
- Vodafone
- Vodafone Germany
- Vodafone Portugal
- Volia
- Volny
- VUDU
- Win Multimedia
- Wind
- Witbe
- Yahoo
- YouTube
- ZTE
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