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Poland Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 106
Business Monitor International's Poland Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's infrastructure industry.
Europe's harsh winter months at the start of the year may have slowed construction activity in Poland but the resilience of this sector should help pull the economy into growth of around 3% in 2010. Although Poland's construction industry will not achieve pre-crisis growth rates of 11-12% over the next few years, the sector's growth in 2010 will edge up fractionally to 4.59% to PLN98.4bn (US$35.3bn), according to BMI's latest forecasts. Whereas previously Poland's construction sector was buoyed by a rapidly expanding economy, the financial downturn has checked this, at least for the time being. Indeed, over the forecast period the main driver of construction sector growth will be the Euro 2012 Championship, which is being jointly hosted by Poland and Ukraine.
Due to the importance of roads in the country's transport mix and the scale of improvement required, road investments have typically driven the value of Poland's transport sub-sector. This is especially the case as the European Union (EU) continues to support the relief of road infrastructure by switching freight onto other modes of transport. Road and bridge construction makes up 83.3% of the total value of transport investment. After decelerating from a high of 13.88% in 2009, the growth in value of road and bridge projects will still increase y-o-y over the forecast period. Road development will grow by 5.51% in 2010 to be worth PLN26.94bn (US$9.67bn). At PLN29.68bn (US$10.07bn) road, rail, airport and port projects made up 66.14% of the infrastructure sector's total value in 2009 as the sub-sector grew in real terms by 12.81%.
Yet in the latest quarter, energy projects dominated Poland's infrastructure sector. With electricity demand set to experience rapid growth in the coming years, Poland is scrambling to increase its power capacity. Indeed, this quarter Poland moved closer to realising its Swinoujscie LNG terminal as construction is slated for late-2010. The US$1bn terminal will bolster the country's energy diversity and security, most obviously away from Russian supply, and an agreement already in place with Qatar for 1mn tonnes of LNG per year. The terminal has been touted as capable of meeting a third of Poland's gas demand at 5bn cubic metres per year. Similarly, US-Japanese Westinghouse Electric Company signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Poland’s largest utility Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) to produce a feasibility study for Poland’s debut nuclear power plant. GE-Hitachi (GEH) also signed an agreement to study the building of up to four reactors based on GEH’s reactor designs (the 1,350-MWe ABWR or the 1,520-MWe ESBWR).
Meanwhile, Poland is planning to sell stakes in its biggest power producers in order to help ease its budget deficit in 2010. The assets are attractive, and BMI expects that there will be interest from a number of major players in Europe’s power sector in the Polish companies.
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