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Turkey Real Estate Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 56
The Turkey Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's Real Estate industry.
At first glance, Turkey’s commercial real estate market looks similar to many others across Central and Eastern Europe. The global financial crisis exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances, demand for rental space fell and rents dropped by around one-fifth over the course of 2009. Conditions became more challenging for many players.
In fact, it is the differences between the commercial real estate sector of Turkey and its counterparts in nearby countries that are much more important. Unlike the US, UK and certain parts of Western Europe (and, indeed, Central and Eastern Europe), Turkish banks have been restrained, and non-financial enterprises and households are under-geared. The building boom in Istanbul was not funded by aggressive lending. One implication of this is that distress selling of property by over-extended investors and developers is far less likely in Turkey than it is in other countries. Another implication is that Turkey will likely sustain significantly higher economic growth rates through 2011-2014 than most of the EU. However, the news is not all good. Our sources in Istanbul confirm that vacancy rates are running at around 30% in both the office and the retail sub-sectors. Market protagonists can afford to take a long view, but they will probably not be able to exact higher rents from their tenants in Turkey’s largest commercial centre. By contrast, the dynamics in Ankara appear to be driven by a gross under-supply of office space. Rents in that city’s office sub-sector (and probably the retail and industrial sub-sectors as well) will likely rise. The bottom line is that we expect yields to rise in Ankara, but to track sideways in Istanbul, over the coming four years or so.
Interviews with our in-country sources were conducted in mid-March 2010.
Key Features Of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
For Q3 we have introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. We have incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
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