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United Arab Emirates Autos Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 73
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' automotive industry.
The UAE’s automotive market is showing strong signs of recovery in 2010, after a substantial dip in sales in 2009. A previously burgeoning market was trimmed by the global economic crisis, which had a particularly strong impact on Dubai, where real estate values fell and major government-backed corporations were unable to meet their debt obligations.
Vehicle sales fell to 325,274 units in 2009 from 255,177 the previous year as financing was tightened and the economy tipped into recession. However, a rebound in the oil price to a high of around US$75-80 per barrel has helped haul the economy back into growth, with BMI forecasting a 2.8% expansion in GDP. Nonetheless, credit remains somewhat tight, and caution is the watchword for many investors. We therefore expect vehicle sales to reach 352,913 units in 2010, slightly below 2008 levels, but representing a good recovery from 2009.
Automotive finance in the UAE is easing after the financial crisis, but is not flowing as freely as the positive economic outlook and banking results might suggest. While the Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR) has remained low for over a year, at around or below 2%, actual market lending has generally been at a much higher rate, as banks have looked to shore up their capital during and after the downturn. Many have also tightened their lending terms to avoid non-performing loans. The subsequent tightness of lending may mean the auto market’s recovery is not as strong as it might have been. This is despite an array of moves by the central bank and government to boost liquidity and encourage lending. However, Abu Dhabi has ridden out the global economic crisis significantly more strongly than Dubai, largely owing to its lower levels of leverage and the fact that the emirate has the vast majority of the UAE’s oil resources.
The UAE market as a whole sees increasing competition. Toyota Motor has traditionally been a market leader in the Middle East, even in the more affluent Gulf countries, where it makes around 6.5% of its global sales. However, the firm has apparently been losing its competitive edge in recent years, with rivals gaining on its world-leading market position. Arabian Automobiles Company, which is the exclusive dealer for Nissan Motor. Infiniti and Renault sold 25,204 units, up 18% year-on-year (y-o-y), which generated record turnover of AED2.5bn (US$ 68.06mn). By 2010, the distributor is aiming to claim a 25% share of the UAE vehicle market, which would put its annual sales at over 80,000 units per annum.
In the medium term, the UAE may see the launch of Taiwanese brand Luxgen, which debuted at the Dubai Motor Show in December 2009. The firm is expected to seek to place itself in the market between cheaper Chinese exporters and the bigger Japanese names, leveraging on its high-tech equipment developed by Taiwanese electronics firm GTC.
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