United Kingdom Defence and Security Report Q3 2010

The United Kingdom Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Kingdom's defence and security industry.

The immediate future of Britain’s defence spending, including commitments in Afghanistan and other overseas military operations, renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent, and security and counterterrorism policy could be in doubt as the recent election resulted in a hung parliament and a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. While the Conservatives are supposedly committed to all of the above, the need to make deep cuts in public spending could affect future defence projects. The renewal of Trident could be in particular doubt, as the Liberal Democrats came out strongly against the programme in its election campaign.

As at April 7 2010, a total of 281 British forces personnel or MOD civilians have died while serving in Afghanistan since operations began in October 2001, with 35 men killed by IEDs in 2010 alone. Otherwise, Operation Moshtarak, which began in early February and involves 4,000 British troops out of a Coalition total of 15,000, had stabilised as of April 2010 and US and UK commanders were ‘cautiously optimistic’ that they had secured these areas from insurgency dominance. However, having expelled insurgents from Marjeh and Nad Ali, it remains to be seen if they will re-emerge in other areas. Controversially, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, said in an interview that British forces could be targeted even more intensely by the Taleban in the run-up to the UK general election.

The Real IRA continued its campaign of bomb attacks in Northern Ireland, which have in the past year been sporadic but increasingly threatening. Following a string of incidents it claimed responsibility for the detonation of a car bomb on 12 April at the Holywood Palace Barracks, County Down, close to the Northern Ireland HQ of MI5, only hours before judicial and policing powers were to be transferred to the Stormont assembly. There are fears that the Real IRA may soon be capable of deploying IEDs on mainland UK.

Defence exports only marginally increased in 2009 (US$1,024bn) compared with 2008 (US$1,027bn), with the biggest increase going to Saudi Arabia. In early April, BAE Systems was badly hit by losing the bid to General Dynamics UK for a MoD GPB4bn contract to produce new armoured reconnaissance vehicles for the British army. General Dynamics also beat BAE to a GBP1bn contract in March to build and supply Scout armoured reconnaissance vehicles for the British army. These failed bids could result in 650 job losses at the BAE site in Newcastle. Indeed, BAE faces a chilly climate in the wake of anticipated defence spending cuts by both the British government and US administration – from which BAE attains as much as 50% of its GBP20bn annual revenue.

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
United Kingdom Security SWOT
United Kingdom Defence Industry SWOT
UK Political SWOT
UK Economic SWOT

Global Political Outlook

Table: Election Timetable, 2010

European Regional Security Overview
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
The UK’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating

Table: BMI’s Western Europe City Terrorism Index

Political Overview

Domestic Security Overview
Internal Threats
Domestic Terrorism
Northern Ireland
Table: Proscribed Irish Groups
Table: United Kingdom Insurgent Groups
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
External Threats
WMD Fears
Drug Trafficking
International Terrorism
Table: Proscribed International Groups
Latest Developments
External Security: Recent Developments
Military Structure And Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Western European Armed Forces, 2010
Defence Reform
Enduring Peace Support Operations
Intervention Against State Adversaries
Routine Deployments
International Deployments
Table: Principal Deployments Of UK Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction

Market Overview

Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players In The UK’s Defence Sector
Latest Developments
Timeline: UK Government Procurement
Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: UK Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
Government Defence Expenditure
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2007-2014
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United Kingdom – Economic Activity, 2007-2014

Company Profiles

BAE Systems
GKN
QinetiQ
Rolls-Royce

Country Snapshot: UK Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2011 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources

- BAE Systems
- GKN
- QinetiQ
- Rolls-Royce

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