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Venezuela Retail Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, June 2010, Pages: 52
The Venezuela Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's retail industry.
The Q310 BMI Venezuela Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by an average of 33.7% a year in local currency terms between 2010 and 2014, from VEF208.46bn (US$97.20bn) to VEF676.80bn (US$315.58bn). Although hyperinflation and the country’s first currency devaluation since 2005 make the outlook less certain, BMI expects an expanding population, rising disposable income and easier access to consumer credit to have positive effects on Venezuela’s retail sales.
Venezuela’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$371.70bn in 2010, with 2009’s decline of 3.3% expected to worsen to a contraction of 3.8% in 2010 as the country continues to suffer the effects of a prolonged economic slowdown. Average annual GDP growth of just 1.5% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 29.4mn in 2010 to a forecast 31.6mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is forecast to increase from US$4,754 in 2010 to US$6,651 by 2014.
Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%. In 2005, 63.8% of the Venezuelan population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.8% in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales. By 2015, the proportion in the 20-44 age band is predicted to be 38.5% and 65.5% of the population is expected to be economically active. In terms of retail sub-sectors, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to grow from US$0.41bn in 2010 to US$0.56bn by 2014, up by more than 37%; while automotive sales are forecast to increase by nearly 73% following the severe slump in 2009, from US$0.38bn in 2010 to US$0.66bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are expected to show growth of 25%, rising from US$3.05bn in 2010 to US$3.81bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil together are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010; with the two countries plus Venezuela likely to account for 85.3% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. For Venezuela, the predicted 2010 market share of 8.3% is expected to soar to 17.3% by 2014.
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