Libya's Energy Future 2010/11 Report

Cross-border Information Ltd, July 2010, Pages: 72

Libya's Energy Future 2010/11 builds on a special issue of African Energy that was published last year, one month before the 40th anniversary of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi's ‘Great El Fatah Revolution'. Extensively rewritten and expanded by John Hamilton, supported by correspondents in Libya and third countries, and by Cross-border Information's team of writers and researchers, it is intended to give an informed overview and analysis of the electricity, and upstream and downstream gas and oil industries in the Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (State of the Masses).

It also examines Libya's governance and financial record, and assesses the potential for international partners to do business with its institutions and interest groups. This includes analysis of the Libyan political system, from the influence of younger members of the Qadhafi family to the continued importance of tribal relationships. It also provides analysis of the emergence of a more functional and globalised financial system – a significant positive trend that has been reflected in a series of microeconomic developments which should benefit the Libyan population and investors alike.

Supporting the analytical report, this edition of Libya's Energy Future also includes, in one volume, African Energy's practical guide to the industry: The Libya Oil and Gas Handbook 2010/11. The handbook's publication sprang from a desire to understand the sector by making available as many contacts as possible within the Jamahiriya and among its business community – giving readers the benefits of years of visits to companies and interviews by CbI staff. Each entry opens with a profile of the company and contains contact details. Profiles of the most important companies can be cross-referenced with more detailed information published in the Libya's Energy Future Update tables.

The second edition of African Energy's Libya's Energy Future special report was launched at a round table seminar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs' Middle East and North Africa Programme (Menap) at Chatham House on Tuesday 20 July.

The key findings of this 72-page report, analysed in detail in the extensively rewritten and expanded publication, are that:

- UPSTREAM – exploration results will get worse, perhaps much worse, before they get better. Many international oil companies (IOCs) look ready to pull out by the end of this year. But some large exploration programmes may eventually relieve this situation over the long term, particularly if they enable large gas projects to go ahead;

- LEGAL CHANGES – oversight and control of the energy sector is still not clear. National Oil Corporation chairman Shukri Ghanem is still very powerful, but other institutions, including the Supreme Council for Energy Affairs, may also grow in authority. The General People's Committee and other parts of the state have weight. Rewriting the petroleum law could introduce unforeseen risks for IOCs if Ghanem does not get his way;

- DOWNSTREAM OPENING – by encouraging foreign investors into refining and petrochemicals partnerships, Ghanem is quietly restructuring NOC in an attempt to build a broader, more market-oriented industrial base;

- ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION – reforms to the tax and banking systems that have started over the past year will accelerate an ongoing and until now scarcely noticed commercial revolution. A domestic private sector, especially in the provision of oil services, is developing very quickly and changing the face of the Jamahiriya as it does so.

Part I: The Context

Introduction
- Overview: Opportunities And Pitfalls
- Handbook: Navigation Through The Industry
- Contrarian View: A Role For Bp

Focus
- Reappraising Policy: Woe And Opportunity
- Data: Estimated Reserves And Future Exploration
- Legislation: Petroleum Law
- Data: Bilateral Exploration Commitments
- Risk: Diplomatic Winners And Losers
- Verenex: Lesson For Investors

Part II: Energy Industries

Power
- Generation: Diversification Still A Dream
- Planned Plants: Financing Problems
- Generation: New Capacity Coming On Stream
- Renewables: On The Drawing Board
- Map: Generation, Transmission And Gas Supply Infrastructure
- Nuclear: Tripoli Secures Allies
- Water Supply: Desalination Projects, Desal Plant Table
- Project Update: Generation, Transmission And Distribution

Upstream Oil And Gas
- Overview: Noc Braces For Mass Exodus
- Data: Rig Count 1999-2010
- Exploration: Success Hangs In The Balance
- Data: Progress Of Epsa-4 Exploration, Exploration Results
- Data: Past, Present And Future Oil Production
- Production: Opec Restrictions Delay Increases
- Noc/Ioc Relations: Unpopular Renegotiations
- Data: Ioc Renegotiations Table
- Natural Gas: New Prospects As Oil Takes A Back Seat
- Company?News: Eor Contracts, Bp Exploration Prospects
- Map: Oil And Gas Infrastructure And Fields
- Eni & Gazprom: Courtship Continues
- Map: Licensed Areas – North-West
- Map: Licensed Areas – North-East
- Map: Licensed Areas – South-East
- Map: Licensed Areas – South-West
- Index: Licensed Areas

Upstream Update
- Table: Comprehensive Listing Of E&P Projects

Downstream Hydrocarbons And Markets
- Overview: Top Priority For Privatisation
- Refining: Joint Venture Makes A Profit
- Gas Exports: Lng Retender Planned
- Real Estate: Buyer Found For Energy City
- Oil Trading: Noc Underlines Market Conditions
- Data: Oil Field Contracts, Oil Sales And Exports

Downstream Update
- Table: Refining, Gas, Petrochemicals And Pipelines

Part III: The Policy And Business Environment

Politics And Policy
- Political Reform: Qadhafi In Control
- Institutions: Congresses And Committees
- Geopolitics: The Hannibal Affair
- Family Politics: Central Role For Qadhafi Children
- Family Tree: Three Generations Of Qadhafis
- Who'S Who: Politicians And Energy Executives

Finance And Business
- Local Content: New Entrepreneurs Emerge
- Bank Reform: Promise Of A New Commercial Revolution
- Infrastructure: Programme Tests Spending Limits
- Education: University For Africa
- Investment Trends: Africa Projects
- Aaic: Operations From Gabon To Darfur
- Lia: Sovereign Fund Searching For Bargains, What Is The Lia?
- Sovereign Wealth: Lia Chronology

Part IV: The Libya Oil & Gas Handbook 2010/
- Company Profiles
- Noc And Subsidiaries: Details Of 11 Companies
- Noc/Ioc Joint Ventures: Nine Jvs
- International Oil Companies: Contacts In 39 Iocs
- Engineering & Construction Companies: 20 Firms
- Seismic And Geophysical Services: A Dozen Companies
- Drilling And Workover: 17 Companies
- Oil And Gas Services: 30 Firms Operating In Libya
- Other Libyan Institutions: Nine Parastatal Players
- Banks: Points Of Contact At Three Institutions
- Lawyers: Listing Some Of The Prominent Firms
- Business Advice: Trade Groups And Expert Boutiques

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