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Libya's Energy Future 2010/11 Report
Cross-border Information Ltd., July 2010, Pages: 72
Libya's Energy Future 2010/11 builds on a special issue of African Energy that was published last year, one month before the 40th anniversary of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi's ‘Great El Fatah Revolution'. Extensively rewritten and expanded by John Hamilton, supported by correspondents in Libya and third countries, and by Cross-border Information's team of writers and researchers, it is intended to give an informed overview and analysis of the electricity, and upstream and downstream gas and oil industries in the Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (State of the Masses).
It also examines Libya's governance and financial record, and assesses the potential for international partners to do business with its institutions and interest groups. This includes analysis of the Libyan political system, from the influence of younger members of the Qadhafi family to the continued importance of tribal relationships. It also provides analysis of the emergence of a more functional and globalised financial system – a significant positive trend that has been reflected in a series of microeconomic developments which should benefit the Libyan population and investors alike.
Supporting the analytical report, this edition of Libya's Energy Future also includes, in one volume, African Energy's practical guide to the industry: The Libya Oil and Gas Handbook 2010/11. The handbook's publication sprang from a desire to understand the sector by making available as many contacts as possible within the Jamahiriya and among its business community – giving readers the benefits of years of visits to companies and interviews by CbI staff. Each entry opens with a profile of the company and contains contact details. Profiles of the most important companies can be cross-referenced with more detailed information published in the Libya's Energy Future Update tables.
The second edition of African Energy's Libya's Energy Future special report was launched at a round table seminar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs' Middle East and North Africa Programme (Menap) at Chatham House on Tuesday 20 July.
The key findings of this 72-page report, analysed in detail in the extensively rewritten and expanded publication, are that:
- UPSTREAM – exploration results will get worse, perhaps much worse, before they get better. Many international oil companies (IOCs) look ready to pull out by the end of this year. But some large exploration programmes may eventually relieve this situation over the long term, particularly if they enable large gas projects to go ahead;
- LEGAL CHANGES – oversight and control of the energy sector is still not clear. National Oil Corporation chairman Shukri Ghanem is still very powerful, but other institutions, including the Supreme Council for Energy Affairs, may also grow in authority. The General People's Committee and other parts of the state have weight. Rewriting the petroleum law could introduce unforeseen risks for IOCs if Ghanem does not get his way;
- DOWNSTREAM OPENING – by encouraging foreign investors into refining and petrochemicals partnerships, Ghanem is quietly restructuring NOC in an attempt to build a broader, more market-oriented industrial base;
- ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION – reforms to the tax and banking systems that have started over the past year will accelerate an ongoing and until now scarcely noticed commercial revolution. A domestic private sector, especially in the provision of oil services, is developing very quickly and changing the face of the Jamahiriya as it does so.
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