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The Future of 4G Technologies: New Opportunities and Changing Business Models for the Emergence of LTE and WiMAX
Business Insights, June 2010, Pages: 185
Technological innovation, including 3G, improved smartphones and multiplay mobile Internet devices (MIDs), has led to a boom in data usage with data traffic surpassing voice traffic for the first time in December 2009. Having nearly trebled in 2008 and 2009, global mobile data traffic is expected to double every year until at least 2013.
The wealth of content and mobile applications available to users worldwide puts a strain on mobile networks. Next generation technologies like pre-4G and 4G with their promise of greater speed and spectral efficiency become all the more appealing to the players involved in the ICT value chain. However, the reality is that 80% of mobile connections are still on 2G networks and 3G connections are only available in some areas, even in developed countries, with the exception of a few leading countries.
The 4G proposition sounds very promising but its success will ultimately depend on the availability of new spectrum and wide coverage. The many benefits of 4G may also be wasted unless ICT companies find business models that will not only drive adoption but will also help them to increase revenue.
Key features of this report
- Overview of the market trends, technological and regulatory changes that are shaping the adoption of 4G.
- Identification of the main features of IMT-Advanced and of the principle 4G technology candidates.
- Comparison of the LTE and WiMAX technology families and their respective interest for ICT players.
- Examination of current pre-4G deployments.
- Analysis of the threats and opportunities posed by 4G.
Scope of this report
- Review the current technologies, regulatory factors and industry support impacting the adoption of 4G technologies.
- Identify key changes in consumer usage behavior that drive the need for the greater speed and spectral efficiency afforded by 4G.
- Understand how legacy technologies will influence vendors’ choice of 4G protocol due to the economic and technical implications of deploying each technology.
- Identify the technology family best suited to a chosen 4G strategy based on each technology’s characteristics and individual corporate circumstances.
- Identify the various initiatives in support of each technology candidate in order to revise considered strategies if necessary.
Key Market Issues
- Mobile penetration keeps growing worldwide. More consumers have access to mobile broadband and applications that require large amounts of bandwidth. This new trend creates connection issues and network congestion while posing network management and profitability issues for network operators.
- Technological advances such as the wider availability of 3G and innovation made in smartphones and other Internet-enabled devices have encouraged consumers to use their mobile devices more in the way they typically use their computers, accessing an increasing amount of data. By widening their range of user equipment, handset and PC manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung have increased consumers’ expectations of a truly mobile computer environment. The experience of services such as mobile video, TV, and VoIP are becoming more comparable to those provided by a fixed PC environment.
- The great majority of mobile users are still on 2G networks that do not support the rich communication services users are increasingly expecting from their networks. Even the experience of those users on 3G networks is restrained by the technology’s limitations. As data traffic increases in volume, network operators are confronted with the threat of traffic congestion and diminishing revenue. They need to find a way to not only meet their customers’ needs but also ensure their profitability, which impacts their relationship with other vendors in the ICT value chain.
Key findings from this report
- Consumers are generating increasingly high volumes of mobile data traffic due to their adoption of more advanced devices. Smartphones and mobile Internet devices contribute to the growing popularity of bandwidth-intensive applications such as mobile video but also peer-to-peer and social networking. This puts pressure on networks and leads to congestion and poorer consumer experience.
- 2G still accounts for the great majority of mobile connections worldwide but increasingly high pockets of data traffic in some markets, combined with changing user needs, are rendering current mobile technologies inadequate to meet demand satisfactorily. Although 3G is responding to rising consumer data usage, a more efficient technology is required to not only meet consumer needs but also enhance user experience while ensuring profitability for ICT companies.
- Industry and consumers alike are keen to take mobile communications to the next level and there is strong interest in pre-4G technologies such as Mobile WiMAX and LTE that can increase data rates and capacity dramatically. Both technologies are marketed as 4G despite not meeting the IMT Advanced requirements. While Mobile WiMAX is already available in some markets, deployment of LTE is only just starting, pushing back the date when true 4G will be widely available commercially.
Key questions answered
- What are the major trends and drivers behind the adoption of 4G?
- What are the main 4G protocols and what is their appeal?
- What technologies, products and services will influence the successful rollout of 4G?
- Who are the major players in the 4G market and how do they position themselves?
- What are the main threats posed by the deployment of 4G and how can companies protect themselves?
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