3Q11 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015: France to have 83 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Orange taking 44% market share
- Published: October 2011
- Region: France
Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the French wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for France include: Orange (France Telecom S.A.), SFR (Vodafone Group Plc), Bouygues Telecom, Orange's MVNOs, and SFR's MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Orange (France Telecom S.A.)
SFR (Vodafone Group Plc)
Orange’s MVNOs (Only the subscriber data is available for MVNOs)
SFR’s MVNOs (Only the subscriber data is available for MVNOs)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Stable wireless subscriber growth continues in France
+5.1% industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was 5.1% in 1Q.2010, up from 4.2% in 1Q.2009.
• The largest operator, Orange (France Telecom), had a subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 4.3% in 1Q.2010, up from 3.5% in 1Q.2009.
• Bouygues Telecom's wireless subscriber growth rate (YoY) was 6.7% in 1Q.2010, up from 4.6% in 1Q.2009.
• Orange's MVNOs are also gaining more and more subscribers. Their subscribers increased by 33.5% (YoY) to reach 2.5 million in 1Q.2010.
ARPU level is declining in France
-3.8% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The decreasing trend in ARPU continues. The industry average ARPU growth decreased to -3.8% in 1Q.2010, down from -0.4% in 1Q.2009.
• Orange’s monthly ARPU was €32.42 in 1Q.2010, down -2.7% from 1Q.2009.
• SFR's monthly ARPU was €34.58 in 1Q.2010, down -2.6% from 1Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined to 235 minutes per month
-4.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average MOU/Sub (Minute of Use per subscriber) reached 235 minutes per month in 1Q.2010, down from 247 minutes per month in 1Q.2009.
• SFR (Vodafone) remains to be the operator with the highest MOU/Sub at 319 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
• In comparison, Orange's MOU/Sub level is much lower at 191 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
Negative EBITDA growth at Orange and Bouygues Telecom in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth was -7.1% in 1Q.2010
• The overall EBITDA growth (YoY) in France's wireless market was -7.1% in 1Q.2010.
• Bouygues Telecom's EBITDA growth (YoY) declined significantly from 12.9% in 1Q.2009 to -14.3% in 1Q.2010.
• EBITDA growth rate (YoY) was also negative at Orange at -10.4% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in France to rise to 70 million in 2014
• The wireless penetration rate is still below 100% in France, and this is relatively low compared to some other European countries such as Germany (with a wireless penetration rate of 132% in 1Q.2010). We forecast that total mobile subscriber connections in France will increase from 60.5 million in 2009 to 70 million by the end of 2014.
• Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest operator. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 26.3 million in 2009 to 29 million in 2014.
• Our forecasting model also predicts that numbers of subscriber connections at SFR and Bouygues Telecom will be approximately 23 million and 12 million respectively in 2014.
ARPU levels will be stable in France's mobile operator space from 2010 to 2014
• We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain at approximately €33 - €34 over the next five years.
• Our model forecasts that monthly ARPUs at Orange and SFR will be approximately €31 and €33 respectively in 2014.
• On the other hand, we expect that ARPU level at Bouygues Telecom will remain higher at about €40 per month over the next five years.
EBITDA margins expected to decline at Orange over the next five years
• We forecast that Orange's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will decline from 40% in 2009 to 37% in 2014 while SFR's EBITDA margin remains at around 38% over the forecast period.
• Bouygues Telecom's profitability will continue to be lower than the largest two operators. We expect that its EBITDA margin will remain in the range of 25% - 27% over the next five years.
Orange (France Telecom S.A.)
SFR (Vodafone Group Plc)