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3Q10 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
Description:
Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Italian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for Italy include: Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Contents:
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
Vodafone Group Plc
Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR --
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) --
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) --
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) --
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone Group Plc
-- Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
Vodafone Group Plc
Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR --
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) --
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) --
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) --
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone Group Plc
-- Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Contents:
Executive Summary
Negative subscriber growth continues at Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone
-1.8% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was -1.8% in 1Q.2010, down from 0% in 1Q.2009.
• Subscriber growth (YoY) at the largest operator, Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), declined to -11.0% in 1Q.2010, down from -4.9% in 1Q.2009.
• On the other hand, wireless subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Vodafone, Wind and Hutchison were positive at 1.5%, 9.3% and 1.4% respectively in 1Q.2010.
ARPU levels are stabilizing at TIM and Vodafone
+1.4% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average ARPU growth (YoY) was 1.4% in 1Q.2010, up from -3.8% in 1Q.2009.
• Vodafone's monthly ARPU is stabilizing at approximately €21 in 1Q.2010, up +1.0% YoY.
• Hutchison has the lowest monthly ARPU among operators at €15 in 1Q.2010, down -12.8% YoY.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing in the Italian wireless market
+10.9% operator-wide average MOU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was 10.9%, up from 3.2% in 1Q.2009.
• Wind's MOU/Sub remains the highest in the country at 174 minutes per month in 1Q.2010 (up +6.1% from 164 minutes in 1Q.2009).
• Vodafone had the lowest MOU/Sub among operators of 119 minutes per month in 1Q.2010, up +3.5% YoY.
• TIM's MOU/Sub increased to 145 minutes in 1Q.2010, up from 122 minutes in 1Q.2009.
Positive EBITDA growth at Vodafone and Wind in the latest quarter
+4.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 4.8% in 1Q.2010, up from -7.6% in 1Q.2009.
• Vodafone's EBITDA growth (YoY) was strong at 11.7% in 1Q.2010, up from -9.2% in 1Q.2009. Wind's EBITDA growth (YoY) was also positive at 5.1% in 1Q.2010.
• On the other hand, TIM had a negative growth rate (YoY) of -3.5% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber connections in Italy to reach 89.6 million in 2014
• Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total wireless subscriber accounts in Italy will increase from 88 million in 2009 to 89.6 million in 2014.
• We think that, although TIM will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Italy, its subscriber base will decline over the next several years. Our model predicts that the number of mobile connections at TIM will be about 29.2 million in 2014.
• On the other hand, we expect that Vodafone's subscriber base will increase from 29.9 million in 2009 to 30.9 million in 2014. We forecast that Wind and Hutchison will also see their number of subscriber connections increase to 18.8 million and 10.7 million respectively in 2014.
TIM's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
• Our model predicts that TIM’s subscriber market share will decline from 35% in 2009 to 32.7% in 2014.
• We expect that Vodafone's market share will remain in the range of 34% - 35% over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
• On the other hand, we forecast that subscriber market share of Hutchison will be increasing over the next five years to reach approximately 12% by the end of 2014.
ARPU levels to rise at TIM from 2010 to 2014
• We forecast that the average monthly ARPU in Italy will remain in the range of €19 - €20 over the next five years.
• At the operator level, we think that Vodafone’s monthly ARPU will continue to be the highest among operators staying at approximately €21.70 from 2010 to 2014.
• In comparison, we expect that Hutchison's monthly ARPU will remain below €15 over the forecast period.
Vodafone's profitability will continue to be the highest among the Italian wireless carriers
• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be decreasing over the next several years.
• Among the operators, our model predicts that Vodafone will continue to enjoy higher profitability and its EBITDA margins will remain above 50% over the next eight quarters.
Negative subscriber growth continues at Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone
-1.8% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was -1.8% in 1Q.2010, down from 0% in 1Q.2009.
• Subscriber growth (YoY) at the largest operator, Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), declined to -11.0% in 1Q.2010, down from -4.9% in 1Q.2009.
• On the other hand, wireless subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Vodafone, Wind and Hutchison were positive at 1.5%, 9.3% and 1.4% respectively in 1Q.2010.
ARPU levels are stabilizing at TIM and Vodafone
+1.4% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average ARPU growth (YoY) was 1.4% in 1Q.2010, up from -3.8% in 1Q.2009.
• Vodafone's monthly ARPU is stabilizing at approximately €21 in 1Q.2010, up +1.0% YoY.
• Hutchison has the lowest monthly ARPU among operators at €15 in 1Q.2010, down -12.8% YoY.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing in the Italian wireless market
+10.9% operator-wide average MOU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was 10.9%, up from 3.2% in 1Q.2009.
• Wind's MOU/Sub remains the highest in the country at 174 minutes per month in 1Q.2010 (up +6.1% from 164 minutes in 1Q.2009).
• Vodafone had the lowest MOU/Sub among operators of 119 minutes per month in 1Q.2010, up +3.5% YoY.
• TIM's MOU/Sub increased to 145 minutes in 1Q.2010, up from 122 minutes in 1Q.2009.
Positive EBITDA growth at Vodafone and Wind in the latest quarter
+4.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 4.8% in 1Q.2010, up from -7.6% in 1Q.2009.
• Vodafone's EBITDA growth (YoY) was strong at 11.7% in 1Q.2010, up from -9.2% in 1Q.2009. Wind's EBITDA growth (YoY) was also positive at 5.1% in 1Q.2010.
• On the other hand, TIM had a negative growth rate (YoY) of -3.5% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber connections in Italy to reach 89.6 million in 2014
• Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total wireless subscriber accounts in Italy will increase from 88 million in 2009 to 89.6 million in 2014.
• We think that, although TIM will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Italy, its subscriber base will decline over the next several years. Our model predicts that the number of mobile connections at TIM will be about 29.2 million in 2014.
• On the other hand, we expect that Vodafone's subscriber base will increase from 29.9 million in 2009 to 30.9 million in 2014. We forecast that Wind and Hutchison will also see their number of subscriber connections increase to 18.8 million and 10.7 million respectively in 2014.
TIM's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
• Our model predicts that TIM’s subscriber market share will decline from 35% in 2009 to 32.7% in 2014.
• We expect that Vodafone's market share will remain in the range of 34% - 35% over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
• On the other hand, we forecast that subscriber market share of Hutchison will be increasing over the next five years to reach approximately 12% by the end of 2014.
ARPU levels to rise at TIM from 2010 to 2014
• We forecast that the average monthly ARPU in Italy will remain in the range of €19 - €20 over the next five years.
• At the operator level, we think that Vodafone’s monthly ARPU will continue to be the highest among operators staying at approximately €21.70 from 2010 to 2014.
• In comparison, we expect that Hutchison's monthly ARPU will remain below €15 over the forecast period.
Vodafone's profitability will continue to be the highest among the Italian wireless carriers
• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be decreasing over the next several years.
• Among the operators, our model predicts that Vodafone will continue to enjoy higher profitability and its EBITDA margins will remain above 50% over the next eight quarters.
Companies Mentioned
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
Vodafone Group Plc
Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
Vodafone Group Plc
Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
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