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France Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 40
The France Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's power industry.
The new France Power Report from the analysts forecasts that the country will account for 7.77% of power generation in developed markets by 2014, and to remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. The analysts developed markets power generation estimate for 2009 is 7,152 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 4.8% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,745TWh between 2010 and 2014, representing an increase of 6.0%.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated in the report at 4,199TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 4,439TWh, implying 5.7% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.3% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. France’s thermal generation in 2009 was 53.9TWh, or 1.28% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 1.19% of thermal generation.
Nuclear energy is the dominant fuel in France, accounting for 38.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 36.2%, gas at 15.9%, coal with a 4.2% share of PED and hydro-electric power with 5.4%. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 3,998mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 6.5% growth in 2010-2014. France’s 2009 market share of 6.58% is set to rise to 6.63% by 2014. France’s 411TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 460TWh by 2014, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets rising from 24.83% to 26.73% over the period. The analysts is now forecasting French real GDP growth averaging 1.80% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 forecast being an increase of 1.60%. Population is expected to expand from 64.2mn to 65.4mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to be up 4% and 6% respectively by 2014. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 431TWh in 2009 to 469TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical supply surplus of around 130TWh, assuming 2.1% average annual growth (2010-2014) in generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in French electricity generation of 15.0%, which is in the middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 8.0% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 6.6% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 3.9% in 2010-2014 to 3.8%, representing 7.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 27% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast fall by 8% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear demand rising by 13%. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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