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Germany Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 44
The Germany Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's power industry.
The new Germany Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 8.59% of power generation in developed markets by 2013, while retaining an electricity export capability. The analysts developed markets power generation estimate for 2009 is 7,152 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 4.8% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,745TWh between 2010 and 2014, an increase of 6.0%.
The analysts estimate thermal power generation in 2009 was 4,199TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 4,439TWh, implying 5.7% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.3% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Germany’s thermal generation in 2009 was 346TWh, or 8.25% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 8.19% of thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Germany, accounting for 39.3% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 24.5%, gas at 24.2%, nuclear energy at 10.5% and hydro-power with a 1.4% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 3,998mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 6.5% growth in 2010-2014. Germany’s 2009 market share of 7.89% is set to rise slightly to 8.20% by 2014. Germany’s 135TWh of 2009 nuclear demand is forecast to decline to 130TWh by 2014, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets falling from 8.16% to 7.55% over the period. The analyst is now forecasting German real GDP growth averaging 1.72% per annum between 2010 and 2014, although the 2010 forecast is an increase of 2.00%. Population is expected to contract from 82.1mn to 81.8mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise by 2% and 5% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to decrease from an estimated 528TWh in 2009 to 557TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical surplus rising from an estimated 69TWh in 2009 to 108TWh in 2014, assuming 2.2% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in German electricity generation of 5.6%, which is bottom of the range for the developed markets. This equates to a decline of 0.8% in 2014-2019, compared with growth of 6.4% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 10.4% in 2010-2014 to a contraction of 0.9% during 2014-2019, representing 9.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 95% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to fall by 12% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear demand falling by 19%. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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