- Language: English
- 221 Pages
- Published: January 2012
- Region: Global
The Future of the South Eastern Europe Natural Gas Market
- Published: March 2010
- Region: Europe
- 41 pages
Declining indigenous supply combined with post-recessionary demand recovery mean that Europe's gas market has reached an important tipping point. Central to this is a need to diversify existing supply sources. South Eastern Europe is emerging as an important new transit route for Central Asian and North African gas, as well as a major demand hub in its own right.
- Insight on likely future supply dynamics in the European gas market set against a backdrop of demand recovery and diversifying supply sources.
- Analysis of new import infrastructure projects and their likely impact on regional supply dynamics.
- A benchmarking of the state of readiness in different markets for impending changes to supply/demand patterns.
- An overview of which markets are likely to increase their dominance and relative importance in the European gas sphere.
Highlights of this title
European gas consumption is reaching maximum production capacity. It's 8% buffer of supply over demand is not sufficient to ensure continued security of supply, particularly given that demand will rise as post-recessionary economic growth gains ground.
South East Europe is one of the largest sources of untapped natural gas in Europe. However, infrastructure is often insufficient to exploit this.
Fortunately, many of these countries have shown strong economic growth in the last 10 years and, in many cases, have recognized that weak infrastructure is the primary factor limiting further growth.
Western Europe cannot rely on Russia for its natural gas if it intends to weather future price spikes or gas shortages. Gazprom is currently facing the challenges of Qatari LNG arriving in Europe and US shale gas collapsing the price of gas. It will face further problems when Russian production fails to meet demand growth.
Key reasons to purchase this title
- Understand the growing role of South East Europe as both a gas supply route and as a new investment zone.
- Analyse the impact of the range of planned, possible and confirmed pipeline projects in the region.
- Formulate a strategic response to changing gas supply routes and understand the new demand led dynamics this will create.
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Segmentation of the natural gas market
Natural gas demand: Mediterranean responsible for Europe's demand growth
Natural gas supply: Italy, Spain and Turkey are optimal import routes
Change drivers/barriers: fear of Russian dependence
Planned changes: planned pipelines would span all demand hot zones
Natural gas demand/supply hot zones
Supply/demand forecasts to 2020 for key countries
Changes to product and pricing: LNG more important if pipelines fail
This report divides Europe along logistics boundaries rather than by geopolitical positioning
Europe will be split by natural gas access routes: Europe will be split by natural gas access routes:
European demand profile: recession had little impact on overall demand growth
Western Europe: demand has stagnated completely during the recession
South Eastern Europe: growth has been continuous and rapid
Western Europe needs Russia
Demand trends in Europe: growth localized to the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas
European supply profile: supply simply will not suffice if demand rises
Russia is by far the largest of the few Western producers and only Norway shows any sign of growing
Four countries have emerged as the largest producers in a region where production has picked up since 2004
Supply trends in Europe: growth localized to the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas
Climate targets drive a move away from coal and oil: natural gas and renewables are primary alternatives
Can South East Europe develop its own energy market? How will this interact with Western needs?
Political involvement is rising because increased competition for gas may lead to national shortages
Energy shortages may be good indicators of natural gas growth hotspots
South East Europe faces large energy shortages due to weak infrastructure, especially as demand is likely to increase in time
Western Europe is struggling to meet its large gas demand without Russia's help
South East Europe will see the fastest response to gas shortages, as infrastructure projects are expected online in 2010-12
Infrastructure developments are the key indicators of Europe's future gas market
Pipelines are likely to swarm into Italy and Turkey, opening up the entire Mediterranean to natural gas
Major cross-border pipelines into Europe
South East Europe has sprawling infrastructure developments and Italy is likely to be a major hub
LNG is the future of natural gas transmission but, although pipelines have an essential role, they are experiencing delays
The importance of natural gas in national power generation: North Africa, Italy and Spain are key users of gas-fired power
Industry is often a driving force for natural gas demand: Egypt, Turkey, Iran and Slovakia are booming
Infrastructure is the main hindrance to a mature gas market, but Mediterranean Europe is keen to avoid this
Demand hot zones: key players in the future of natural gas demand - Iran emerging as a production giant
Supply hot zones: the UK is losing territory as a major gas consumer
Which countries will be the key players in Europe's natural gas market to 2020?
Iran is unlikely to become a net exporter in the foreseeable future as its demand exceeds supply
Turkey is a key player, driven by its growing industry, its important location and its improving infrastructure
Italy will play a key role in Europe, as shrinking supply means that imports will have to increase to meet demand
Egypt has excellent demand growth but, most importantly, it has steeper supply growth to feed Europe
Algeria shows very positive supply potential, although its domestic demand is less encouraging than Egypt's
Libya emerged in the gas market in 2004 thanks to major gas finds, but even without further finds, Libya is key to Europe's supply
France is at the heart of European gas demand, and the end of the recession should encourage renewed demand growth
Germany is not expected to rely too heavily on gas imports, with renewables taking a share of the burden
The Netherlands will play a smaller role in the gas market as production shrinks and demand remains stagnant
UK demand is growing relatively slowly, while supply is plummeting, creating an urgent need to find more imports
Russia's profile is flat: supply should be enough to feed continuing demand growth, with large volumes left for export
Will any other factors affect the European natural gas market? Perhaps product and price will affect dynamics
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Total European natural gas consumption since 1990
Figure 2: Total Western natural gas consumption since 1990
Figure 3: Total South Eastern natural gas consumption since 1990
Figure 4: Total Western natural gas consumption Vs Total Western natural gas production without Russia
Figure 5: Map of European natural gas demand trends
Figure 6: Total European natural gas production since 1990
Figure 7: Total Western natural gas production since 1990
Figure 8: Total South Eastern natural gas production since 1990
Figure 9: Map of European natural gas supply trends
Figure 10: Causes of natural gas shortages in 2008/9: South East
Figure 11: Causes of natural gas shortages in 2008/9: West
Figure 12: Chart to show how prepared countries are to respond to their natural gas shortages
Figure 13: Map of major pipelines into Europe
Figure 14: List of the most important pipelines feeding European natural gas markets
Figure 15: Map of planned natural gas storage sites
Figure 16: Map of all LNG terminals in Europe
Figure 17: Datamonitor Ranking of how prepared Europe is for natural gas growth
Figure 18: Share of natural gas in power generation - scored ranking
Figure 19: Scale of Industrial natural gas consumption - scored ranking
Figure 20: Scale of natural gas infrastructure - scored ranking
Figure 21: Key European gas demand markets forecast to 2020
Figure 22: Key European gas supply markets forecast to 2020
Figure 23: Datamonitor forecast of Iran's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 24: Datamonitor forecast of Turkey's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 25: Datamonitor forecast of Italy's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 26: Datamonitor forecast of Egypt's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 27: Datamonitor forecast of Algeria's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 28: Datamonitor forecast of Lybia's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 29: Datamonitor forecast of France's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 30: Datamonitor forecast of Germany's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 31: Datamonitor forecast of Netherland's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 32: Datamonitor forecast of UK's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 33: Datamonitor forecast of Russia's natural gas market to 2020
Figure 34: Forecast supply and demand data