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Egypt Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 69
The Egypt Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's telecommunications industry.
In the latest update of the Egypt Telecommunications Report, we have analysed the latest data available from the Egyptian telecoms market. This has not led to big revisions of the forecasts, as the data for the first part of 2010 appear to fit very well within our previous expectations.
In the last update, we revised our forecasts for all sectors, with changes in fixed-line particularly notable. Egypt’s fixed-line sector contracted by 11.9%, which saw its fixed lines in service reach 10.313mn. That the country has managed to hold onto growth in the sector compared with the global decline in fixed lines is perhaps related in part to the deployment of fixed lines in ADSL connections. However, with mobile penetration rates now passed 70%, it is not surprising that greater mobile substitution is taking the place of fixed lines, which has contributed to the latter’s decline. We have found no reason to changes these. There were 58.628mn mobile subscribers in Egypt at the end of March 2010. The report estimates the mobile sector to expand by 23% in 2010 to reach 69.383mn subscribers and a penetration rate of 85.1%. By the end of 2014, we forecast penetration of 132.4%, which, however, contains a number of inactive SIMs. Mobile broadband connections over 3G networks are seen as the second largest technology access group next to ADSL lines in the broadband market and have helped to bring connectivity to areas where there is a lack of fixed-line network coverage. No-one, neither the various agencies nor the operators, is at present providing good data on the number of 3G dongles in use in Egypt, but the publishers own observations of the market suggest that they are popular among high-end users and businesses. Some have suggested that they may soon overtake fixed-line connections as the principle form of connection to the internet in Egypt.
Egypt has moved down one place within our Telecoms Business Environment Ratings in this latest update. Falling ARPUs have led to a drop in the Telecoms Market score, but the overall rating for Egypt was bolstered slightly by improvement from a Country Risk perspective.
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