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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 71
The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Central Asia's telecommunications industry.
For the first time we have included broadband forecasts in our Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report as this area of the telecoms market has such high potential. While the focus is and will remain on mobile services for some time, there is scope for the expansion of broadband services in the region. However, a number of factors will dictate whether broadband services really take off, including literacy levels, the cost of computers and internet equipment and the reach of networks. With fixed-line networks limited to major towns and cities, the proliferation of broadband services has been slow and restricted.
Only Kazakhstan stands out as having any real broadband market, reaching 8.8% penetration at the end of 2009. Continued strong growth is forecast for the market. While there will be growth in the other Central Asia markets, none are expected to achieve 1% penetration by 2014 without considerable changes in the reach of networks and services. Despite there being more competition for services in the internet market than in the fixed-line market, incumbent operators still dominate and the number of subscribers in Central Asian markets with the exception of Kazakhstan is only a few thousand.
Political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan has filtered through to the telecoms market as the privatisation of the incumbent was reversed by the interim government. The sale of a 78% stake in Kyrgyztelecom was said to have favoured ‘friends’ of the ousted president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, and the stake was taken back into government hands. BMI believes a strong financial investor would benefit Kyrgyztelecom, but also one with the technical expertise to help bring new products, services and technologies to the market. No timetable has been given for the re-privatisation and BMI expects the operator to make few new moves in the meantime.
Although broadband has strong potential in growth terms, the mobile market continues to be the largest in terms of the number of subscribers. By 2014, the publisher expects all five markets to have more than 100% penetration, with four passing this mark in 2012. The rivalry between the owners of several of the mobile operators in the region, not to mention the addition of the technical expertise, has driven subscriptions up and generated exceptionally high growth rates.
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