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Turkey Retail Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
BMI’s Q410 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by more than 19% by 2014, from TRY293.28bn (US$225.18bn) in 2010 to TRY349.77bn (US$268.56bn). Underlying economic growth; an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income; and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales.
Turkey’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$736.9bn in 2010, with 2009’s decline of 4.7% expected to translate into growth of 4.9% in 2010 as the economy begins to improve. Average annual GDP growth of 5.2% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from 73.2mn in 2010 to an estimated 76.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 86% to US$18,521 by the end of the forecast period. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$6,965 in 2010 to US$12,925 by 2014.
Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 13.5% by the end of 2009. We forecast that this will start to fall in 2010, ending the forecast period at 8.0%. In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
Using BMI Food & Drink service data we identify a food and drink retail market share in 2010 of 25.7%. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.16bn in 2010 to US$2.11bn by 2014, a rise of nearly 82%. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by more than 68% from US$13.25bn in 2010 to US$22.30bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by more than 52%, from US$7.33bn in 2010 to US$11.14bn by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Turkey’s predicted market share of 19.2% in 2010 is expected to fall slightly, to 18.6%, by 2014.
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