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Croatia Tourism Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Croatia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Foreign tourism to Croatia has been poor in recent years, with growth in arrivals of 1% and -1% year-onyear (y-o-y) in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Data for January-April 2010 show that the number of foreign tourist arrivals was down by 2% y-o-y, with domestic tourist numbers falling by nearly 12% y-o-y. Of the Croatia’s key European source markets, only Slovenia provided positive y-o-y growth in arrivals over the four-month period. Combined foreign and domestic tourist arrivals fell by about 6% compared with the corresponding period in 2009. What is particularly noticeable this year are the sharp movements in the monthly data for foreign tourism, with arrivals down by 24% y-o-y in January but rising by 23% y-o-y in March.
Hospitality
The hospitality sector recorded a weak performance in 2008 and 2009 in terms of the total number of tourist nights. In the first four months of 2010, tourist nights fell by 4.5% y-o-y, with the number of foreign and domestic nights falling by 1.3% and 10.7% respectively. Domestic tourist nights also fell relatively sharply last year. In regards to the key source markets, although Slovenia showed buoyant growth of over 20% y-o-y in tourist nights over January-April, nights attributed to German and Austrian tourists were down by approximately 3% and 10% y-o-y respectively.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Our forecast for growth in foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 has been edged down marginally this quarter to 2% y-o-y, although growth in arrivals though is anticipated to pick up slightly in 2011. These forecasts are based on a mild economic recovery in major foreign source markets, with the eurozone emerging from recession in 2010 and growth improving to 1.6% in 2011. During the summer tourism season, we also expect appreciatory pressures on the Croatian kuna to pick up. That said, short-term appreciation will be modest. Our forecast exchange rate for the kuna against the euro for end of 2011 also shows slight appreciation compared with 2010. This is likely to act as a constraint on growth in foreign arrivals from the eurozone.
Air Passenger Traffic
Following a 12% y-o-y fall in international passenger air traffic on Croatian carriers in 2009, traffic remained weak in Q110, with numbers down by 11% y-o-y. During the first five months of 2010 at Zagreb Airport – the main international airport in Croatia – passenger traffic was poor, falling by 7% y-oy, after declining by 6% in 2009, although the downturn has eased since the beginning of this year.
Croatia Airlines
Weaker tourism took its toll on the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines in 2009, with the airline recording a 6% annual fall in traffic to 1.75mn passengers. This followed relatively strong growth in the previous two years of 9% y-o-y each. The airline launched a direct, three times a week service between Zagreb and the Greek capital Athens in June 2010.
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