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Brazil Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 77
The Brazil Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's defence and security industry.
Brazil elects a new president on October 3 2010. Recent opinion polls show Dilma Rousseff, of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), opening up a five percentage point lead over her major challenger, José Serra (of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, PSDB). Dilma Rousseff’s lead in the opinion polls suggests that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s efforts to ensure that his appointed successor replaces him in office are increasingly starting to bear fruit.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, we believe that both candidates will face similar challenges, and will ultimately have to address Brazil’s persisting and pressing economic structural issues. However, in neither case do we expect a sudden shift in policy. While Serra may prove to be more fiscally conservative, we do not envision a sharp unwinding of existing public spending commitments. By the same token, we do not expect a large build-up of public expenditure to a greater extent than already seen in recent years. We believe that Brazil’s growing financial market integration will ultimately ensure a moderate ‘middle way’ for Brazilian politics. Regarding domestic security, Brazil continues to be threatened by gangs involved in drug-related violence, which is especially of concern in the run-up to Brazil hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.
In 2009, Brazil was by far the largest spender on defence in Latin America, with a total budget of over US$27bn, a 16% y-o-y increase. (It has by far the largest armed forces in South America.) There was a near doubling in the procurement budget by the Brazilian government to US$5.6bn over the three years to 2009. On July 16, French defence minister Herve Morin said that he expected President Lula da Silva to commit to ordering 36 Dassault Rafale aircraft later in July, in a contract that would be worth US$7.2bn.
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