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Forecast Insight: HIV - Increasing dominance of fixed dose combinations raises bar for single agents
Datamonitor, June 2010, Pages: 126
Introduction
In 2009, HIV antiretroviral sales across the seven major markets totalled $11.8 billion, growing at a CAGR of 10.8% between 2005 and 2009. While new cross-class fixed dose combinations will ensure market growth until 2015, Datamonitor expects major patent expiries and rising pressure to reduce healthcare costs to trigger a decline in HIV sales in the second half of the forecast period until 2019.
Scope
-Analysis of the current and future market dynamics for HIV antiretrovirals across the US, 5EU and Japan, supported by insights of key opinion leaders.
-Detailed sales forecasts for the major antiretroviral classes, molecules and brands in each of the seven major markets.
-Thorough assessment of key marketed antiretroviral brands and late stage pipeline products.
-Snapshot of HIV drug sales in the Rest of World by region.
Highlights
In 2009 Atripla replaced Truvada as top-selling antiretroviral in the seven major markets, illustrating the increasing popularity of one-pill-once-a-day treatment regimens. This trend is set to intensify following the launch of Tibotec/J&J/Gilead’s Truvada/rilpivirine and Gilead’s Quad pill from 2012 onwards.
Despite predicting continuously rising sales for Prezista until 2013, Datamonitor expects protease inhibitors overall to see the highest sales loss on a class level over the forecast period due to an empty pipeline and the dominance of cross-class fixed dose combinations.
Datamonitor anticipates the increasing pressure to reduce healthcare costs to lead to more cost-control measurements across the seven major markets, resulting in enhanced possibilities for generics to penetrate the HIV drug market. This, in combination with key patent expiries, will result in a decline of HIV antiretroviral sales from 2016 onwards.
Reasons to Purchase
-Understand the changing market dynamics of HIV drugs, success factors for leading brands and the commercial potential of late stage pipeline products.
-Assess the impact of events such as patent expiries and new product launches on individual brands and the overall HIV antiretroviral market.
-Obtain full country, class and product-specific forecasts of currently marketed and pipeline antiretrovirals from 2010 to 2019.
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