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United States Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 68
The United States Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States' power industry.
'The new US Power Report forecasts the country will account for 57.46% of Developed Markets power generation by 2014, and will retain an electricity export capability. The Developed Markets power generation estimate for 2009 is 7,152 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 4.8% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,745TWh between 2010 and 2014, representing an increase of 6.0%.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 4,199TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 4,439TWh, implying 5.7% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.3% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. US thermal generation in 2009 was 2,909TWh, or 69.27% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 68.73% of thermal generation.
For the US, oil is the leading fuel, accounting for 38.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 27.0%, coal at 22.8% and nuclear with an 8.7% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 3,998mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 6.5% growth in 2010- 2014. The US 2009 market share of 59.39% is set to fall to 58.62% by 2014. The 849TWh of US nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 864TWh by 2014, with its share of the Developed Markets nuclear market easing from 1.34% to 50.20% over the period.
The authors are now forecasting US real GDP growth averaging 2.22% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 forecast being an increase of 2.80%. Population is expected to expand from 307.5mn to 322.7mn over the period with GDP per capita rising 14%, but electricity consumption per capita forecast increasing by just 1%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 3,766TWh in 2009 to 4,029TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing surplus capacity rising from an estimated 384TWh in 2009 to 421TWh in 2014, assuming 1.4% average annual growth in power production during 2010-2014.
The volume of power generated by the individual member states varies dramatically, from almost 406TWh in Texas (9.8% of the US total), to less than 6TWh (0.16%) in Vermont. The top 10 US power producers account for more than 47% of the country’s total net generation. The lowest level of fossil fuel use in the top 10 is registered by Illinois and New York. Both derive less than half of their power generation from coal, gas and oil. Nuclear is the dominant fuel in both cases, with Illinois relying on reactors for 47.8% of its power, while New York has 29.1% nuclear dependency. It is also a major user of hydro-electric power, accounting for 17.3% of 2008 generation. In the top 10 power producers, Indiana is the most fossil fuel-intensive, deriving 94% of its electricity from coal-burning facilities and a further 5.1% from gas-fired power stations.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in US electricity generation of 14.2%, which is middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 8.1% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 5.7% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 5.8% in 2010-2014 to 4.6% during 2014-2019, representing 10.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 29% in hydro-power use during 2010- 2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 10% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear use up 10%. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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