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Colombia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2010, Pages: 75
Business Monitor International's Colombia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's telecommunications industry.
Colombia's mobile market saw a period of readjustment in 2009, with sharp losses reported particularly from second-ranked Movistar. Overall the market lost 210,000 connections over the year, predominantly from the prepaid platform, and the market shrank by 0.5% y-o-y. While this would appear to be a blow for Colombia, BMI takes it as rather a positive sign, meaning that there is still some growth potential in the market. Additionally, discounting inactive subscribers gives a clearer idea of the state of the mobile market and allows us to more accurately forecast new trends.
One area of particularly good growth has been the 3G market, with subscribers responding quite well to the service. While BMI believes that mobile broadband will bring in the most consistent revenues for operators, it will be very important to continue including more services for prepaid subscribers and encouraging them to use 3G more and more. This, coupled with improving subscriber mixes, will help to maintain the upward swing of ARPUs which saw lower declines towards the end of 2009, and may begin to exhibit some growth once the market returns to growth in 2010.
Fixed-line services seem to have irrevocably tipped into decline, seeing an 8.8% y-o-y decrease in lines. BMI expects this will slow, as operators bring new products onto the market and there is a rise in bundled services, but we do not believe the market will return to growth, despite the low penetration rate.
In the broadband sector the number of lines passed 2mn at the end of 2009, with over 500,000 new lines added over the year. BMI believes that mobile broadband will become an increasingly popular means of driving up broadband connections, as seen elsewhere in Latin America. However, there are several factors that will determine the development of mobile broadband, including pricing of 3G connections, availability of services and the cost of the devices that connect to the network.
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