Contents:

CNS COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET... TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................... i SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION TO CNS IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET ........................................................ 1 1.1 SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH INVESTIGATION........................................................... 1 1.2 METHODOLOGY OF INVESTIGATION................................................................................................ 2 1.3 LIMITATIONS OF INVESTIGATION ..................................................................................................... 3 SECTION 2 COMPETITIVE BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN CNS DISORDERS IN EUROPE ............................. 5 2.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE ADHD SECTOR....................................................................... 6 2.2.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of ADHD ............................................................. 6 2.2.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for ADHD................................................................ 7 2.2.3 Competitive Developments and implications in ADHD .................................................................. 7 2.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE SECTOR ...................................... 8 2.3.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Alzheimer’s Disease........................................ 8 2.3.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease......................................... 10 2.3.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Alzheimer’s Disease........................................... 11 2.4 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE ANXIETY SECTOR .............................................................. 13 2.4.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Anxiety.......................................................... 13 2.4.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Anxiety............................................................. 16 2.4.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Anxiety ............................................................... 16 2.5 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE DEPRESSION SECTOR........................................................ 19 2.5.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Depression..................................................... 19 2.5.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Depression........................................................ 22 2.5.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Depression.......................................................... 23 2.6 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE EPILEPSY SECTOR.............................................................. 26 2.6.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Epilepsy......................................................... 26 2.6.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Epilepsy............................................................ 28 2.6.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Epilepsy.............................................................. 28 2.7 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE PARKINSON’S DISEASE SECTOR .................................... 31 2.7.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Parkinson’s Disease....................................... 31 2.7.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Parkinson’s disease .......................................... 32 2.7.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Parkinson’s disease............................................. 33 2.8 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE SCHIZOPHRENIA SECTOR ................................................ 35 2.8.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Schizophrenia ................................................ 35 2.8.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Schizophrenia................................................... 37 2.8.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Schizophrenia ..................................................... 38 2.9 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE SLEEP DISORDER SECTOR................................................ 39 2.9.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Sleep Disorders.............................................. 39 2.9.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Sleep Disorders ................................................ 41 2.9.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Sleep Disorders................................................... 42 2.10 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE STROKE SECTOR................................................................. 43 2.10.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Stroke ............................................................ 43 2.10.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Stroke ............................................................... 46 2.10.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Stroke ................................................................. 46 2.11 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE SUBSTANCE ABUSE SECTOR........................................... 49 2.11.1 Introduction and Pharmacological Management of Substance Abuse............................................ 49 2.11.2 Product Technology Evaluation and Forecast for Substance abuse ............................................... 50 2.11.3 Competitive Developments and implications in Substance abuse.................................................. 50 SECTION 3 PROFILES OF LEADING FIRMS DEVELOPING AND/OR MARKETING CNS MEDICINES ....................................................................................................................................................... 53 3.1 ABBOTT................................................................................................................................................... 53 3.1.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 53 3.1.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION............................................................................ 54 3.1.3 CNS Portfolio Performance............................................................................................................ 56 3.2 AKZO NOBEL ......................................................................................................................................... 63 3.2.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 63 3.2.2 Business Performance Evaluation .................................................................................................. 64 3.2.3 CNS Portfolio Performance............................................................................................................ 65 3.3 AMERICAN HOME PRODUCTS........................................................................................................... 70 3.3.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 70 3.3.2 Business Performance Evaluation .................................................................................................. 71 3.3.3 CNS Portfolio Performance............................................................................................................ 73 3.4 ASTRAZENECA...................................................................................................................................... 81 3.4.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 81 3.4.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION............................................................................ 82 3.4.3 CNS Portfolio Performance............................................................................................................ 84 3.5 AVENTIS.................................................................................................................................................. 90 3.5.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 90 3.5.2 Business Performance Evaluation .................................................................................................. 91 3.5.3 CNS Portfolio Performance............................................................................................................ 93 3.6 BAYER..................................................................................................................................................... 99 3.6.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 99 3.6.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 100 3.6.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 102 3.7 BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM................................................................................................................ 107 3.7.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 107 3.7.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................................................................... 108 3.7.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 109 3.8 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB ................................................................................................................. 115 3.8.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 115 3.8.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................................................................... 116 3.8.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 117 3.9 ELI LILLY.............................................................................................................................................. 123 3.9.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 123 3.9.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 125 3.9.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 127 3.10 GLAXOSMITHKLINE .......................................................................................................................... 135 3.10.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 135 3.10.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................................................................... 136 3.10.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 138 3.11 JOHNSON & JOHNSON ....................................................................................................................... 146 3.11.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 146 3.11.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................................................................... 147 3.11.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 150 3.12 LUNDBECK........................................................................................................................................... 157 3.12.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 157 3.12.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................................................................... 158 3.12.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 159 3.13 MERCK KGAA...................................................................................................................................... 167 3.13.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 167 3.13.2 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................................................................... 168 3.13.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 170 3.14 NOVARTIS ............................................................................................................................................ 173 3.14.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 173 3.14.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 174 3.14.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 176 3.15 PFIZER ................................................................................................................................................... 185 3.15.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 185 3.15.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 187 3.15.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 188 3.16 PHARMACIA......................................................................................................................................... 199 3.16.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 199 3.16.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 200 3.16.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 201 3.17 ROCHE................................................................................................................................................... 208 3.17.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 208 3.17.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 209 3.17.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 210 3.18 SANOFI-SYNTHÉLABO ...................................................................................................................... 217 3.18.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 217 3.18.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 219 3.18.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 220 3.19 SERVIER................................................................................................................................................ 229 3.19.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 229 3.19.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 231 3.19.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 231 3.20 SOLVAY ................................................................................................................................................ 237 3.20.1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 237 3.20.2 Business Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................ 238 3.20.3 CNS Portfolio Performance.......................................................................................................... 240 SECTION 4 EVALUATION OF THE LEADING COMPANIES IN CNS THERAPEUTICS ...................... 245 4.1 COMPETENCY REQUIREMENTS FOR MARKET ........................................................................... 245 4.1.1 Competency Requirements........................................................................................................... 245 4.1.2 Competitive Analysis of Participating Manufacturers.................................................................. 246 LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES- 1 Forecast CNS Turnover and Percent Change 2000-2005 All CNS Turnover - All Leading Manufacturers.................................................................................................................................. iii Figure ES- 2 Forecast CNS Turnover Compared to Change in Market Share 2000-2005 All CNS Turnover - All Leading Manufacturers ........................................................................................................... iv Figure 2.1 Forecast for ADHD - Europe by Technology Platform.................................................................... 7 Figure 2.2 Trends in ADHD Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share .................................... 9 Figure 2.3 Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease/Dementia by Technology Type ................................................ 11 Figure 2.4 Trends in Alzheimer’s Disease/Dementia Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share............................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2.5 Forecast for Anxiolytics by Technology Platform ......................................................................... 16 Figure 2.6 Trends in Anxiety Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share ................................. 18 Figure 2.7 Forecast for Depression/Bipolar Disorder by Technology Platform.............................................. 22 Figure 2.8 Trends in Depression Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share ............................ 25 Figure 2.9 Forecast for Epilepsy by Technology Platform.............................................................................. 28 Figure 2.10 Trends in Epilepsy Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share ................................ 30 Figure 2.11 Forecast for Parkinson’s Disease by Technology Platform............................................................ 33 Figure 2.12 Trends in Parkinson’s Disease Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share.............. 35 Figure 2.13 Forecast for Schizophrenia by Technology Platform..................................................................... 38 Figure 2.14 Trends in Schizophrenia Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share ....................... 40 Figure 2.15 Forecast for Sleep Disorders by Technology Type ........................................................................ 41 Figure 2.16 Trends in Sleep Disorders Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share..................... 44 Figure 2.17 Forecast for Stroke Intervention by Technology Type................................................................... 47 Figure 2.18 Trends in Stroke Intervention Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share ............... 48 Figure 2.19 Forecast for Substance Abuse by Technology Type ...................................................................... 50 Figure 2.20 Trends in Substance Abuse Portfolio Commitment/Business Risk and Market Share................... 52 Figure 4.1 Forecast CNS Turnover and Percent Change 2000-2005 All CNS Turnover - All Leading Manufacturers............................................................................................................................... 249 Figure 4.2 Forecast CNS Turnover Compared to Change in Market Share 2000-2005 All CNS Turnover - All Leading Manufacturers ........................................................................................................ 250 LIST OF TABLES Table ES- 1 Historic and Forecast European Turnover by Indication.................................................................. ii Table ES- 2 Chart ES- 2 Historic and Forecast Turnover of CNS Products in Europe by Leading Company.... iii Table 1.1 Major Firms...................................................................................................................................... 1 Table 2.1 European Market Forecast for ADHD by Therapy Class/Technology............................................. 7 Table 2.2 New Product Launch Activity by Manufacturer and Year to 2004 - ADHD ................................... 8 Table 2.3 European Historic and Forecast ADHD Turnover by Leading CNS Company ............................... 8 Table 2.4 European Market Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease/Dementia by Therapy Class/Technology..... 11 Table 2.5 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Alzheimer’s Disease/Dementia ........................................................................................................................... 12 Table 2.6 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Alzheimer’s Disease/Dementia by Leading CNS Company ........................................................................................................................................ 12 Table 2.7 European Market Forecast for Anxiety by Therapy Class/Technology ......................................... 17 Table 2.8 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Anxiety ...................................... 17 Table 2.9 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Anxiety by Leading CNS Company ...................... 17 Table 2.10 European Market Forecast for Depression by Therapy Class/Technology .................................... 23 Table 2.11 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Depression ................................. 24 Table 2.12 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Depression by Leading CNS Company ................. 24 Table 2.13 European Market Forecast for Epilepsy by Therapy Class/Technology ........................................ 29 Table 2.14 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Epilepsy..................................... 29 Table 2.15 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Epilepsy by Leading CNS Company ..................... 29 Table 2.16 European Market Forecast for Parkinson’s Disease by Therapy Class/Technology ...................... 33 Table 2.17 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Parkinson’s Disease.................. 34 Table 2.18 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Parkinson’s Disease by Leading CNS Company ... 34 Table 2.19 European Market Forecast for Schizophrenia by Therapy Class/Technology................................ 38 Table 2.20 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Schizophrenia ............................ 39 Table 2.21 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Schizophrenia by Leading CNS Company ............ 39 Table 2.22 European Market Forecast for Sleep Disorders by Therapy Class/Technology............................. 42 Table 2.23 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Sleep Disorders.......................... 42 Table 2.24 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Sleep Disorders by Leading CNS Company.......... 43 Table 2.25 European Market Forecast for Stroke by Therapy Class/Technology............................................ 47 Table 2.26 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Stroke......................................... 47 Table 2.27 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Stroke by Leading CNS Company......................... 48 Table 2.28 European Market Forecast for Substance Abuse by Therapy Class/Technology ........................... 51 Table 2.29 New Product Launch Activity by Company and Year to 2005 - Substance Abuse........................ 51 Table 2.30 European Historic and Forecast Turnover for Substance Abuse by Leading CNS Company........ 51 Table 4.1 Manufacturer Turnover, Key Brands and New Product Development Pipeline........................... 245 Table 4.2 Historic and Forecast European Turnover by Indication.............................................................. 246 Table 4.3 New Product Launch Activity by Indication to 2005 ................................................................... 247 Table 4.4 Summary of CNS Product Development Programs by Sector ..................................................... 248 Table 4.5 CNS Market - Leading Stakeholders Ranking Summary............................................................. 249 Table 4.6 Performance Impact Map Manufacturers Turnover Performance By CNS Disorder Market Share and Trend - 2005 ................................................................................................................ 251