|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 81
The Italy Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's oil and gas industry.
BMI forecasts that Italy will account for 12.43% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 4.04% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Italy’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 17.83%, while it contributed around 3.21% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 18.01%, with a 3.04% contribution to regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Italian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.5% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 0.7% in 2010. We are assuming 1.5% average annual growth in 2010-2014. By 2014, we expect to see the country consuming 1.67mn b/d of oil. A rise in near-term domestic oil production is expected. We are assuming oil production of 165,000b/d in 2010, but imports are set to reach 1.52mn b/d by 2014. Use of gas in power generation is the key to demand growth and consumption looks set to reach 85.1bcm by 2014. Imports are likely to have reached 77.1bcm at this stage.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Italian oil production of 33.3%, with output peaking at 170,000b/d in 2011 before slipping to 110,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given oil consumption is forecast to increase by 1.53%, imports can also be expected to rise from an estimated 1.47mn b/d in 2010 to 1.55mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 77.5bcm to 94.0bcm by 2019. Production of an estimated 8.5bcm in 2010 is expected to fall to 6.0bcm by 2019, requiring imports up from 69.0bcm to 88.0bcm, in the form of pipeline gas and LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI’s country risk team, Italy’s long-term political risk score is 80.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 64.6, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Italy has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a significant upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic and foreign operators. Downstream oil is highly competitive and involves a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and domestic companies. Both the gas and power markets are privatised and open to competition.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
