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Brazil Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 54
The Brazil Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's power industry.
The newly published Brazil Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will by 2014 account for 42.98% of Latin America regional power generation. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2009 is 1,109 terawatt hours (TWh), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,302TWh by 2014, a 2010-2014 rise of 12.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have been 409TWh, accounting for 36.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 454TWh, implying 9.4% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.9% – thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Brazil’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 48.4TWh, or 11.85% of the regional total. By 2014, it is expected to account for 11.90% of thermal generation.
In 2009, oil was Brazil’s dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 46.1% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 35.3%, gas at 10.0%, coal at 6.2% and nuclear at 0.8%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 748mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth during 2010-2014. Brazil’s estimated 2009 market share of 37.02% is set to reach 38.65% by 2014. The country’s estimated 13.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 14.0TWh by 2014, with its share of the regional nuclear market expected to ease from 45.00% to 43.08%.
Brazil is still ranked first, well above nearest rival Chile, in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It scores highest in the region for installed generating capacity, electricity generation, PED and its use of renewables (largely hydro-power). Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country seems destined to remain at the head of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI now forecasts average annual real GDP growth of 4.24% between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 assumption being an increase of 6.00%. The population is expected to expand from 195mn to 206mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 40% and 11% respectively). Brazil’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 425TWh in 2009 to 521TWh by the end of 2014, providing theoretical export potential that is cancelled out largely by transmission losses. BMI assumes 4.3% average annual growth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast an increase in Brazilian electricity generation of 46.5%, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 27.0% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 15.4% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 15.9% in 2010-2014 to 19.9%, representing 38.9% for the entire forecast period. An anticipated increase of 43% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 29% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption up by 63%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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